UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Saturday, October 8, 2016·Manchester, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Michael Bisping won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Bisping 86%14% Henderson
STRONGMarket: 69% (+17.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +370(favors Bisping)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Henderson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mousasi 83%17% Belfort
STRONGMarket: 75% (+8.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Mousasi)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jimi Manuwa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Manuwa 43%57% Preux
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Manuwa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Manuwa)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R2)
Struve 82%18% Omielanczuk
STRONGMarket: 62% (+20.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Omielanczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Omielanczuk)
FeatherweightHIT
Mirsad Bektic won by Submission (R1)
Bektic 90%10% Doane
STRONGMarket: 84% (+6.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +405(favors Bektic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Bektic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Bektic)
BantamweightHIT
Iuri Alcantara won by Submission (R1)
Alcantara 65%35% Pickett
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Pickett)
BantamweightMISS
Damian Stasiak won by Submission (R3)
Stasiak 39%61% Grant
LEANMarket: 37% (+2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Stasiak)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Stasiak)
WelterweightMISS
Leon Edwards won by Submission (R3)
Edwards 30%70% Tumenov
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Tumenov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Edwards)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by KO/TKO (R2)
Diakiese 74%26% Sajewski
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +125(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sajewski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sajewski)
WelterweightMISS
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R3)
Perry 44%56% Roberts
LEANMarket: 49% (-4.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Roberts)
LightweightMISS
Leonardo Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 50%50% Martins
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+14.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Martins)