UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Saturday, October 8, 2016·Manchester, England, United Kingdom·11 fights
Model: 6/11(55%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✗✓✗✗
Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Michael Bisping won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Bisping 82%18% Henderson
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+12.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Bisping)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Henderson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mousasi 92%8% Belfort
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+16.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Mousasi)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jimi Manuwa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Manuwa 45%55% Preux
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Manuwa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Manuwa)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R2)
Struve 80%20% Omielanczuk
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 62% (+18.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Omielanczuk)
FeatherweightHIT
Mirsad Bektic won by Submission (R1)
Bektic 84%16% Doane
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+0.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +590(favors Bektic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Bektic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Bektic)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Iuri Alcantara won by Submission (R1)
Alcantara 70%30% Pickett
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +149(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Pickett)
BantamweightMISS
Damian Stasiak won by Submission (R3)
Stasiak 42%58% Grant
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 37% (+5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Stasiak)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Stasiak)
WelterweightMISS
Leon Edwards won by Submission (R3)
Edwards 38%62% Tumenov
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 32% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -276(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Tumenov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Edwards)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by KO/TKO (R2)
Diakiese 74%26% Sajewski
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +155(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sajewski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sajewski)
Early Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R3)
Perry 47%53% Roberts
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Roberts)
LightweightMISS
Leonardo Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 44%56% Martins
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 35% (+9.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Martins)