UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bisping at 1522 versus Henderson at 1404. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Dan Henderson. The model is firm on this one: Bisping at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Bisping at 69% implied while our model sees 86% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 506 points above Belfort's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Belfort the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mousasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Vitor Belfort. The model is firm on this one: Mousasi at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Mousasi at 75% implied while our model sees 83% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12).

Manuwa is rated at 1070 — 153 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's striker game against Preux's all-rounder approach. Manuwa brings a versatile approach, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manuwa throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Manuwa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Manuwa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Jimi Manuwa. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Omielanczuk at 960 versus Struve at 878. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Omielanczuk brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Omielanczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Daniel Omielanczuk. The model is firm on this one: Struve at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Struve at 62% implied while our model sees 82% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-3) taking on Russell Doane (3-4).

Bektic carries a modest Elo edge (1010 to 952), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bektic throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Russell Doane. The model is firm on this one: Bektic at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Bektic at 84% implied while our model sees 90% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 212 points above Pickett's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alcantara's striker game against Pickett's all-rounder approach. Alcantara brings a versatile approach, while Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Brad Pickett. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Damian Stasiak (2-3) taking on Davey Grant (8-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Grant.

Grant is rated at 1200 — 327 points above Stasiak's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Stasiak looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stasiak the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stasiak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Damian Stasiak. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Albert Tumenov (5-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Edwards.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 487 points above Tumenov's 1109. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edwards's all-rounder game against Tumenov's striker approach. Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tumenov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tumenov throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tumenov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Leon Edwards. We're leaning Tumenov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Lukasz Sajewski (0-2). Diakiese is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Diakiese is rated at 1050 — 259 points above Sajewski's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sajewski throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sajewski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Lukasz Sajewski. We're leaning Diakiese here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-7) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Perry is rated at 1066 — 160 points above Roberts's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perry throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Mike Perry. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Perry, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Adriano Martins (4-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Martins carries a modest Elo edge (1070 to 1039), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Martins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adriano Martins over Leonardo Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martins at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 35% implied while our model sees 50% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.