UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Saturday, October 1, 2016·Portland, Oregon, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by Decision - Split (R5)
Lineker 55%45% Dodson
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 47% (+8.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Dodson)
LightweightMISS
Alex Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R3)
Oliveira 47%53% Brooks
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UPMarket: 27% (+19.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +161(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Oliveira)
WelterweightHIT
Zak Ottow won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ottow 60%40% Burkman
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Ottow)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Burkman)
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Moreno won by Submission (R1)
Moreno 15%85% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 20% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -498(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Smolka)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Henrique da Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 80%20% Christensen
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +288(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.8(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Christensen)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fili 60%40% Dias
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 38% (+22.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -173(favors Dias)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Fili)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Shamil Abdurakhimov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Abdurakhimov 66%34% Harris
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+11.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Harris)
WelterweightMISS
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 46%54% Nakamura
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (-2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Nakamura)
MiddleweightMISS
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Marquardt 39%61% McCrory
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 33% (+5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors McCrory)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cutelaba 59%41% Wilson
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 62% (-2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +38(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Wilson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Wilson)
HeavyweightHIT
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blaydes 80%20% East
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +251(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors East)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Blaydes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Vieira 57%43% Faszholz
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 48% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +315(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Faszholz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faszholz)