UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Saturday, October 1, 2016·Portland, Oregon, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by Decision - Split (R5)
Lineker 57%43% Dodson
LEANMarket: 47% (+10.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Dodson)
LightweightMISS
Alex Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R3)
Oliveira 35%65% Brooks
LEANMarket: 27% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +141(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Oliveira)
WelterweightHIT
Zak Ottow won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ottow 56%44% Burkman
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Ottow)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Burkman)
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Moreno won by Submission (R1)
Moreno 17%83% Smolka
STRONGMarket: 20% (-3.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -396(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Smolka)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Henrique da Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 78%22% Christensen
STRONG
→Elo gap: +170(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.8(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Christensen)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fili 65%35% Dias
LEANMarket: 38% (+26.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Dias)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Fili)
HeavyweightHIT
Shamil Abdurakhimov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Abdurakhimov 60%40% Harris
LEANMarket: 54% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Harris)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 64%36% Nakamura
LEANMarket: 48% (+15.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Nakamura)
MiddleweightMISS
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Marquardt 37%63% McCrory
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors McCrory)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cutelaba 70%30% Wilson
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -4(favors Wilson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Wilson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Wilson)
HeavyweightHIT
Curtis Blaydes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blaydes 81%19% East
STRONGMarket: 68% (+13.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +127(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors East)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Blaydes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Vieira 58%42% Faszholz
LEANMarket: 48% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +185(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Faszholz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faszholz)