UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on John Dodson (10-6).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 199 points above Dodson's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Lineker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over John Dodson. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 47% implied while our model sees 57% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Will Brooks (1-2). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oliveira at 934, Brooks at 934. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Brooks over Alex Oliveira. The model gives Brooks a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 27% implied while our model sees 35% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Ottow (4-3) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11).

Ottow is rated at 963 — 220 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ottow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Ottow over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Ottow a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8).

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 536 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Smolka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Smolka the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Brandon Moreno. The model is firm on this one: Smolka at 83%. The market implies 20% for Moreno, but our model sees only 17%. That 3-point gap favoring Smolka is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Henrique da Silva (2-3) taking on Joachim Christensen (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Christensen at 862 versus Silva at 759. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 8.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Christensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Christensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henrique da Silva over Joachim Christensen. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 78%.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Hacran Dias (3-4). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 160 points above Dias's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dias is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Hacran Dias. The model gives Fili a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Fili at 38% implied while our model sees 65% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1133 versus Abdurakhimov at 1018. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdurakhimov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shamil Abdurakhimov over Walt Harris. The model gives Abdurakhimov a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Abdurakhimov at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-6).

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1041 to 987), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nakamura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Keita Nakamura. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 48% implied while our model sees 64% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-4). McCrory is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1064 versus McCrory at 976. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McCrory the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over Nate Marquardt. The model gives McCrory a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Marquardt at 33% implied while our model sees 37% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Jonathan Wilson (1-2).

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 336 points above Wilson's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Jonathan Wilson. We're leaning Cutelaba here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cutelaba at 62% implied while our model sees 70% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Cody East (0-1).

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 927 points above East's 708. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. East throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Cody East. The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 68% implied while our model sees 81% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Kelly Faszholz (0-1).

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 514 points above Faszholz's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faszholz throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Faszholz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Kelly Faszholz. The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 48% implied while our model sees 58% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.