UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features John Lineker (12-4) taking on John Dodson (10-7).

Lineker is rated at 1549 — 173 points above Dodson's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Lineker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over John Dodson. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 47% implied while our model sees 55% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-10) taking on Will Brooks (1-3). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Oliveira at 1099 versus Brooks at 967. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brooks throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Brooks over Alex Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brooks at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 27% implied while our model sees 47% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Ottow (4-4) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-12).

Ottow is rated at 1003 — 187 points above Burkman's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ottow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Ottow over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Ottow a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-7-2) taking on Louis Smolka (8-9).

Moreno is rated at 1417 — 466 points above Smolka's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Smolka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Smolka the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Brandon Moreno. The model is firm on this one: Smolka at 85%. The market implies 20% for Moreno, but our model sees only 15%. That 5-point gap favoring Smolka is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Henrique da Silva (2-4) taking on Joachim Christensen (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Christensen at 819 versus Silva at 736. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 8.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Christensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Christensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henrique da Silva over Joachim Christensen. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 80%.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Hacran Dias (3-5). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fili at 1176 versus Dias at 1057. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Fili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dias is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Hacran Dias. The model gives Fili a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Fili at 38% implied while our model sees 60% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-6) taking on Walt Harris (6-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1273 versus Abdurakhimov at 1135. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdurakhimov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shamil Abdurakhimov over Walt Harris. We're leaning Abdurakhimov here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Abdurakhimov at 54% implied while our model sees 66% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-7).

Santos is rated at 1215 — 176 points above Nakamura's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nakamura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keita Nakamura over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nakamura at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-12) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-5). McCrory is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1179 versus McCrory at 1036. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving McCrory the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over Nate Marquardt. The model gives McCrory a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Marquardt at 33% implied while our model sees 39% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (9-10-1) taking on Jonathan Wilson (1-3).

Cutelaba is rated at 1305 — 572 points above Wilson's 733. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Jonathan Wilson. The model gives Cutelaba a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (14-5) taking on Cody East (0-2).

Blaydes is rated at 1794 — 1214 points above East's 581. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. East throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Cody East. The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 68% implied while our model sees 80% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-5) taking on Kelly Faszholz (0-2).

Vieira is rated at 1352 — 695 points above Faszholz's 657. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faszholz throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Faszholz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Kelly Faszholz. The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 48% implied while our model sees 57% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.