UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Saturday, September 10, 2016·Cleveland, Ohio, USA
Model Record: 10/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miocic 66%34% Overeem
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+14.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Miocic)
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Werdum 67%33% Browne
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +251(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Werdum)
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R1)
Gall 65%35% Punk
LEAN
→Elo gap: +111(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Punk)
BantamweightHIT
Jimmie Rivera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rivera 63%37% Faber
LEANMarket: 61% (+2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faber)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Jessica Andrade won by Submission (R1)
Andrade 68%32% Wood
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+12.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Andrade)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Bethe Correia won by Decision - Split (R3)
Correia 63%37% Eye
LEANMarket: 43% (+20.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Correia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Correia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Correia)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tavares 57%43% Magalhaes
LEANMarket: 64% (-6.1% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Magalhaes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Magalhaes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Tavares)
LightweightHIT
Nik Lentz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lentz 93%7% McBride
STRONGMarket: 80% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +223(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Lentz)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 55%45% Gonzalez
LEANMarket: 60% (-4.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -3(favors Gonzalez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Dober)
WelterweightHIT
Yancy Medeiros won by Submission (R2)
Medeiros 55%45% Spencer
LEANMarket: 55% (+0.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Medeiros)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Spencer)