UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Saturday, September 10, 2016·Cleveland, Ohio, USA·10 fights
Model: 9/10(90%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miocic 68%32% Overeem
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+16.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Miocic)
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Werdum 60%40% Browne
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 66% (-5.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Werdum)
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R1)
Gall 66%34% Punk
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +166(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Punk)
BantamweightHIT
Jimmie Rivera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rivera 59%41% Faber
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 61% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faber)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Jessica Andrade won by Submission (R1)
Andrade 57%43% Wood
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 56% (+1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -196(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Andrade)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Bethe Correia won by Decision - Split (R3)
Correia 63%37% Eye
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 43% (+20.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +237(favors Correia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Correia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Correia)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tavares 71%29% Magalhaes
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+7.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Magalhaes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Magalhaes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Tavares)
LightweightHIT
Nik Lentz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lentz 92%8% McBride
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+12.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +296(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Lentz)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 48%52% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-12.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -5(favors Gonzalez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Dober)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Yancy Medeiros won by Submission (R2)
Medeiros 53%47% Spencer
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-1.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +281(favors Medeiros)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Spencer)