UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7).

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 434 points above Overeem's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Alistair Overeem. We're leaning Miocic here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 52% implied while our model sees 66% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 363 points above Browne's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's all-rounder game against Browne's knockout artist approach. Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Browne is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Travis Browne. We're leaning Werdum here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on CM Punk (0-1).

Punk is rated at 924 — 163 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Punk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Punk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over CM Punk. The model gives Gall a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivera at 1277, Faber at 1297. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Urijah Faber. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8). Wood is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Andrade at 1115, Wood at 1101. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Joanne Wood. We're leaning Andrade here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 56% implied while our model sees 68% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bethe Correia (5-5-1) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

Eye carries a modest Elo edge (950 to 883), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Correia brings a versatile approach, while Eye is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Eye the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Correia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Correia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bethe Correia over Jessica Eye. The model gives Correia a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Correia at 43% implied while our model sees 63% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Caio Magalhaes (4-2).

Magalhaes is rated at 1099 — 174 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Magalhaes's submission artist approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Magalhaes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Caio Magalhaes. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Tavares, but our model sees only 57%. That 6-point gap favoring Magalhaes is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Michael McBride (0-1).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 296 points above McBride's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. McBride has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Michael McBride. The model is firm on this one: Lentz at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Lentz at 80% implied while our model sees 93% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Jason Gonzalez (1-2). Gonzalez is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 196 points above Gonzalez's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Jason Gonzalez. The model gives Dober a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Dober, but our model sees only 55%. That 5-point gap favoring Gonzalez is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on Sean Spencer (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Medeiros at 999 versus Spencer at 862. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Medeiros the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spencer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yancy Medeiros over Sean Spencer. The model gives Medeiros a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.