UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Yair Rodriguez (11-4) taking on Alex Caceres (16-13).

Rodriguez is rated at 1705 — 441 points above Caceres's 1264. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Alex Caceres. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 64%. That 7-point gap favoring Caceres is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (10-7) taking on Rony Jason (4-4). Jason will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1173 versus Jason at 1049. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Bermudez's submission artist game against Jason's knockout artist approach. Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jason is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Jason has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Rony Jason. The model is firm on this one: Bermudez at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Bermudez at 69% implied while our model sees 81% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (13-8) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-10). Leites will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1289 — 252 points above Camozzi's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Chris Camozzi. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8) taking on Zak Cummings (10-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cummings at 1433 versus Ponzinibbio at 1335. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Cummings's all-rounder approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Cummings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Cummings over Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummings at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 49%. That 4-point gap favoring Cummings is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-7) taking on Joseph Gigliotti (0-2).

Smith is rated at 1023 — 226 points above Gigliotti's 797. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gigliotti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Smith over Joseph Gigliotti. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 46% implied while our model sees 65% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-6) taking on Danielle Taylor (2-3). Moroz is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moroz at 1018 versus Taylor at 871. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Danielle Taylor. We're leaning Moroz here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-13) taking on Dominique Steele (1-4).

McGee is rated at 1111 — 274 points above Steele's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Steele is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Dominique Steele. The model is firm on this one: McGee at 80%. Notably, the betting market has McGee at 66% implied while our model sees 80% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-10) taking on Viktor Pesta (1-4).

Tybura is rated at 1301 — 627 points above Pesta's 674. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pesta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Viktor Pesta. The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features David Teymur (5-1) taking on Jason Novelli (0-2).

Teymur is rated at 1397 — 521 points above Novelli's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Teymur rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Novelli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Teymur over Jason Novelli. The model is firm on this one: Teymur at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Teymur at 59% implied while our model sees 84% — a 25-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Teruto Ishihara (3-5-1) taking on Horacio Gutierrez (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ishihara at 847, Gutierrez at 829. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Teruto Ishihara over Horacio Gutierrez. The model is firm on this one: Ishihara at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Ishihara at 67% implied while our model sees 79% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (15-10) taking on Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Swanson at 1323 versus Kawajiri at 1201. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Kawajiri's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Kawajiri looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kawajiri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over Tatsuya Kawajiri. The model is firm on this one: Swanson at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Swanson at 74% implied while our model sees 81% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Ledet (3-4) taking on Chase Sherman (4-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sherman at 851 versus Ledet at 755. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ledet's all-rounder game against Sherman's striker approach. Ledet is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sherman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Ledet over Chase Sherman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ledet at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.