UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Wednesday, July 13, 2016·Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lineker 58%42% McDonald
LEANMarket: 60% (-1.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lineker)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R2)
Ferguson 78%22% Vannata
STRONGMarket: 86% (-7.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +610(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Ferguson)
MiddleweightMISS
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R2)
Boetsch 35%65% Samman
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (+1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -211(favors Samman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Samman)
HeavyweightMISS
Daniel Omielanczuk won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Omielanczuk 44%56% Oleinik
LEANMarket: 36% (+8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Oleinik)
WelterweightMISS
Keita Nakamura won by Submission (R2)
Nakamura 39%61% Noke
LEANMarket: 39% (-0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Nakamura)
FlyweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smolka 54%46% Nguyen
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+8.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Smolka)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 52%48% Murphy
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Murphy)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Submission (R1)
Alvey 72%28% Spicely
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+0.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Spicely)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cortney Casey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Casey 54%46% Stanciu
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+12.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -106(favors Stanciu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Stanciu)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 63%37% Pfister
LEANMarket: 72% (-9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +34(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Pfister)
BantamweightMISS
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R3)
Yahya 42%58% Lopez
LEANMarket: 40% (+1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Yahya)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Yahya)
MiddleweightMISS
Alex Nicholson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nicholson 31%69% Clark
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -72(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Nicholson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Clark)