UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Michael McDonald (6-2). McDonald is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 262 points above McDonald's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lineker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. McDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Michael McDonald. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ferguson is rated at 1065 — 167 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferguson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Vannata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Lando Vannata. The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 78%. The market implies 86% for Ferguson, but our model sees only 78%. That 8-point gap favoring Vannata is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Josh Samman (3-1). Samman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 181 points above Samman's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Samman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Samman over Tim Boetsch. We're leaning Samman here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7). Oleinik is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Oleinik at 1073 versus Omielanczuk at 960. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Omielanczuk is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oleinik the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Oleinik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksei Oleinik over Daniel Omielanczuk. The model gives Oleinik a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Omielanczuk at 36% implied while our model sees 44% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Keita Nakamura (4-6) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5). Noke is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nakamura at 987 versus Noke at 869. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nakamura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Noke over Keita Nakamura. The model gives Noke a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Ben Nguyen (4-2). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nguyen is rated at 1036 — 162 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Ben Nguyen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smolka at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Smolka at 46% implied while our model sees 54% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cerminara.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cerminara at 1283 versus Murphy at 1171. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerminara's striker game against Murphy's all-rounder approach. Cerminara brings a versatile approach, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Lauren Murphy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cerminara at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Eric Spicely (2-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alvey at 734, Spicely at 727. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Alvey's striker game against Spicely's wrestler approach. Alvey brings a versatile approach, while Spicely looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Spicely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spicely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Eric Spicely. We're leaning Alvey here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Cristina Stanciu (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Casey at 904 versus Stanciu at 761. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stanciu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Stanciu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cortney Casey over Cristina Stanciu. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Casey at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Casey at 41% implied while our model sees 54% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Cody Pfister (1-2). Pfister will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holtzman at 988 versus Pfister at 840. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pfister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Cody Pfister. The model gives Holtzman a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 72% for Holtzman, but our model sees only 63%. That 10-point gap favoring Pfister is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Matthew Lopez (2-3).

Yahya carries a modest Elo edge (1030 to 999), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Lopez over Rani Yahya. The model gives Lopez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Alex Nicholson (1-2) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Nicholson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Clark carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 893), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicholson throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Alex Nicholson. We're leaning Clark here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.