UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Saturday, May 14, 2016·Curitiba, Parana, Brazil
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miocic 59%41% Werdum
LEANMarket: 40% (+19.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Miocic)
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Souza 57%43% Belfort
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Belfort)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Souza)
Catch WeightHIT
Cristiane Justino won by KO/TKO (R1)
Justino 84%16% Smith
STRONGMarket: 93% (-8.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Justino)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smith)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Mauricio Rua won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rua 34%66% Anderson
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-7.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Anderson)
WelterweightMISS
Bryan Barberena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barberena 30%70% Alves
CONFIDENTMarket: 17% (+12.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -201(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Alves)
WelterweightHIT
Demian Maia won by Submission (R3)
Maia 77%23% Brown
STRONGMarket: 75% (+2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Maia)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 76%24% Marquardt
STRONGMarket: 75% (+0.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Marquardt)
LightweightHIT
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 73%27% Medeiros
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+5.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Medeiros)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Trinaldo)
BantamweightMISS
John Lineker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lineker 47%53% Font
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-12.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Font)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rogerio Nogueira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nogueira 32%68% Cummins
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.8(favors Cummins)
Welterweight
Moraes 78%22% Chagas
STRONGMarket: 80% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +369(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightMISS
Renato Moicano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moicano 33%67% Tukhugov
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Moicano)