UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Saturday, May 14, 2016·Curitiba, Parana, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miocic 57%43% Werdum
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 40% (+16.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -164(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Miocic)
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Souza 74%26% Belfort
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Belfort)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Souza)
Catch WeightHIT
Cristiane Justino won by KO/TKO (R1)
Justino 88%12% Smith
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 93% (-4.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Justino)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smith)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Mauricio Rua won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rua 44%56% Anderson
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 41% (+3.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Anderson)
WelterweightMISS
Bryan Barberena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barberena 37%63% Alves
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 17% (+19.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -276(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Alves)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Demian Maia won by Submission (R3)
Maia 73%27% Brown
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Maia)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 83%17% Marquardt
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+8.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Marquardt)
LightweightHIT
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 75%25% Medeiros
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Medeiros)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Trinaldo)
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lineker 55%45% Font
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Font)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rogerio Nogueira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nogueira 30%70% Cummins
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.8(favors Cummins)
Welterweight
Moraes 82%18% Chagas
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +494(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightMISS
Renato Moicano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moicano 30%70% Tukhugov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -208(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Moicano)