UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-5) taking on Fabricio Werdum (12-6). Miocic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miocic is rated at 1974 — 349 points above Werdum's 1625. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Werdum's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Fabricio Werdum. The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 40% implied while our model sees 57% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-7) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-10).

Belfort carries a modest Elo edge (1440 to 1381), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Souza's wrestler game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Vitor Belfort. We're leaning Souza here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Cristiane Justino (6-1) taking on Leslie Smith (4-3).

Justino is rated at 1459 — 346 points above Smith's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Justino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Leslie Smith. The model is firm on this one: Justino at 88%. The market implies 93% for Justino, but our model sees only 88%. That 5-point gap favoring Smith is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-12-1) taking on Corey Anderson (10-5). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1502 — 446 points above Rua's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Mauricio Rua. The model gives Anderson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rua at 41% implied while our model sees 44% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-10) taking on Warlley Alves (8-8).

Barberena carries a modest Elo edge (1089 to 1045), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barberena's all-rounder game against Alves's knockout artist approach. Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Barberena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Bryan Barberena. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barberena at 17% implied while our model sees 37% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-11) taking on Matt Brown (17-13). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1506 — 250 points above Brown's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Matt Brown. We're leaning Maia here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-10) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-12). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1426 — 246 points above Marquardt's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Marquardt's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Nate Marquardt. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 75% implied while our model sees 83% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-8). Medeiros will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 253 points above Medeiros's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Medeiros is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Medeiros the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Yancy Medeiros. The model is firm on this one: Trinaldo at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Trinaldo at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-4) taking on Rob Font (12-9). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lineker at 1549 versus Font at 1406. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lineker's knockout artist game against Font's all-rounder approach. Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Rob Font. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Lineker, but our model sees only 55%. That 3-point gap favoring Font is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-7) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-7).

Nogueira is rated at 1280 — 248 points above Cummins's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nogueira's all-rounder game against Cummins's striker approach. Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Rogerio Nogueira. We're leaning Cummins here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-5-1) taking on Luan Chagas (1-2-1). Chagas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Moraes is rated at 1267 — 270 points above Chagas's 997. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Chagas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Luan Chagas. The model is firm on this one: Moraes at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (13-7) taking on Zubaira Tukhugov (5-3-1). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1641 — 480 points above Tukhugov's 1161. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Tukhugov's striker approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tukhugov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Renato Moicano. We're leaning Tukhugov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 40% for Moicano, but our model sees only 30%. That 11-point gap favoring Tukhugov is worth watching.