UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6). Miocic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 352 points above Werdum's 1495. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Werdum's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Fabricio Werdum. The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 40% implied while our model sees 59% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9).

Belfort carries a modest Elo edge (1255 to 1187), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Souza's wrestler game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Vitor Belfort. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Leslie Smith (3-3).

Justino is rated at 1362 — 246 points above Smith's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Justino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Leslie Smith. The model is firm on this one: Justino at 84%. The market implies 93% for Justino, but our model sees only 84%. That 9-point gap favoring Smith is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Corey Anderson (10-4). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 583 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Mauricio Rua. We're leaning Anderson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Rua, but our model sees only 34%. That 7-point gap favoring Anderson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7).

Barberena carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barberena's all-rounder game against Alves's knockout artist approach. Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Barberena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Bryan Barberena. We're leaning Alves here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barberena at 17% implied while our model sees 30% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 171 points above Brown's 1201. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Matt Brown. The model is firm on this one: Maia at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1292 — 228 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Marquardt's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Nate Marquardt. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 330 points above Medeiros's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Yancy Medeiros. We're leaning Trinaldo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Trinaldo at 68% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Rob Font (12-7). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lineker at 1455 versus Font at 1361. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lineker's knockout artist game against Font's all-rounder approach. Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over John Lineker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Lineker, but our model sees only 47%. That 12-point gap favoring Font is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6).

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 276 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nogueira's all-rounder game against Cummins's striker approach. Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Rogerio Nogueira. We're leaning Cummins here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Luan Chagas (1-1-1). Chagas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moraes at 1097 versus Chagas at 973. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Chagas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Luan Chagas. The model is firm on this one: Moraes at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 409 points above Tukhugov's 1132. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Tukhugov's striker approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tukhugov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moicano throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Renato Moicano. We're leaning Tukhugov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 40% for Moicano, but our model sees only 33%. That 7-point gap favoring Tukhugov is worth watching.