UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1191 versus Rothwell at 1080. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Rothwell's knockout artist approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rothwell is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Lewis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 399 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Gonzaga's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Gabriel Gonzaga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lewis at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Lewis, but our model sees only 54%. That 4-point gap favoring Gonzaga is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5). Ngannou will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 514 points above Blaydes's 1634. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blaydes brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ngannou throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Curtis Blaydes. The model gives Ngannou a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 41% implied while our model sees 60% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Timothy Johnson (3-3) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 175 points above Johnson's 1067. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Tybura's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Tybura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Timothy Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tybura at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7). Blachowicz is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 814 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Igor Pokrajac. The model is firm on this one: Blachowicz at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-5) taking on Cristina Stanciu (0-1).

Moroz is rated at 952 — 191 points above Stanciu's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stanciu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stanciu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Cristina Stanciu. The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1).

Cummings carries a modest Elo edge (1357 to 1283), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cummings's all-rounder game against Dalby's striker approach. Cummings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dalby brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Dalby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Zak Cummings. The model gives Dalby a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Cummings, but our model sees only 42%. That 6-point gap favoring Dalby is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Ian Entwistle (1-1).

Perez is rated at 1082 — 191 points above Entwistle's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Ian Entwistle. The model is firm on this one: Perez at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 42% implied while our model sees 77% — a 35-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5). Taisumov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 480 points above Hadzovic's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taisumov throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Damir Hadzovic. The model is firm on this one: Taisumov at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Damian Stasiak (2-3) taking on Filip Pejic (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stasiak at 873, Pejic at 856. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stasiak throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stasiak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pejic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damian Stasiak over Filip Pejic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stasiak at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Lucas Martins (3-3) taking on Robert Whiteford (2-2). Martins is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martins at 1095 versus Whiteford at 959. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Martins over Robert Whiteford. The model gives Martins a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Martins at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Cyril Asker (2-2). Cannonier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 523 points above Asker's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Asker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Asker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Cyril Asker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cannonier at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Cannonier, but our model sees only 53%. That 6-point gap favoring Asker is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Velickovic is rated at 1001 — 213 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velickovic's all-rounder game against Chirico's striker approach. Velickovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chirico brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bojan Velickovic over Alessio Di Chirico. The model gives Velickovic a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Velickovic, but our model sees only 60%. That 4-point gap favoring Chirico is worth watching.