UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
Saturday, February 6, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Stephen Thompson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Thompson 42%58% Hendricks
LEANMarket: 30% (+11.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -258(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Hendricks)
HeavyweightHIT
Roy Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 50%50% Rosholt
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Rosholt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Rosholt)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ovince Saint Preux won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Preux 78%22% Cavalcante
STRONG
→Elo gap: +374(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Cavalcante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Preux)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 89%11% Makovsky
STRONGMarket: 79% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +371(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Makovsky)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R2)
Cirkunov 86%14% Nicholson
STRONGMarket: 88% (-2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +9.5(favors Cirkunov)
WelterweightMISS
Mike Pyle won by KO/TKO (R3)
Pyle 47%53% Spencer
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+2.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Pyle)
LightweightMISS
Joshua Burkman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burkman 33%67% Noons
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -182(favors Noons)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Noons)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Burkman)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 66%34% Grabowski
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (+18.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +142(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Lewis)
FlyweightMISS
Justin Scoggins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Scoggins 47%53% Borg
TOSS-UPMarket: 32% (+15.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Borg)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Scoggins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Borg)
FeatherweightMISS
Diego Rivas won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rivas 23%77% Lahat
STRONGMarket: 25% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +61(favors Rivas)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Lahat)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Lahat)
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R1)
Gall 86%14% Jackson
STRONGMarket: 81% (+4.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jackson)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex White won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
White 52%48% Lobov
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+6.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Lobov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors White)