UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson lands on Saturday, February 6, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 12 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Thompson vs Johny HendricksWelterweight | Johny Hendricks | Toss-up | 53% |
| Roy Nelson vs Jared RosholtHeavyweight | Jared Rosholt | Toss-up | 53% |
| Ovince Saint Preux vs Rafael CavalcanteLight Heavyweight | Ovince Saint Preux | Strong | 75% |
| Joseph Benavidez vs Zach MakovskyFlyweight | Joseph Benavidez | Strong | 87% |
| Misha Cirkunov vs Alex NicholsonLight Heavyweight | Misha Cirkunov | Strong | 89% |
| Mike Pyle vs Sean SpencerWelterweight | Sean Spencer | Lean | 60% |
| Joshua Burkman vs KJ NoonsLightweight | Joshua Burkman | Toss-up | 52% |
| Derrick Lewis vs Damian GrabowskiHeavyweight | Derrick Lewis | Confident | 67% |
| Justin Scoggins vs Ray BorgFlyweight | Ray Borg | Lean | 56% |
| Diego Rivas vs Noad LahatFeatherweight | Noad Lahat | Strong | 77% |
| Mickey Gall vs Mike JacksonWelterweight | Mickey Gall | Strong | 89% |
| Alex White vs Artem LobovFeatherweight | Alex White | Lean | 55% |
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Stephen Thompson vs Johny Hendricks
The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-9-1) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-8). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Thompson is rated at 1459 — 205 points above Hendricks's 1254. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against Hendricks's wrestler approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Stephen Thompson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hendricks at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Thompson at 30% implied while our model sees 47% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.
Roy Nelson vs Jared Rosholt
The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-10) taking on Jared Rosholt (6-2). Rosholt is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nelson at 1242, Rosholt at 1256. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Rosholt has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Rosholt's wrestler approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Roy Nelson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosholt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Nelson, but our model sees only 47%. That 12-point gap favoring Rosholt is worth watching.
Ovince Saint Preux vs Rafael Cavalcante
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-13) taking on Rafael Cavalcante (1-4). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Preux carries a modest Elo edge (1056 to 989), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcante throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Rafael Cavalcante. The model is firm on this one: Preux at 75%.
Misha Cirkunov vs Alex Nicholson
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-7) taking on Alex Nicholson (1-3).
Cirkunov is rated at 991 — 151 points above Nicholson's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.5 more per 15 minutes. Nicholson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Alex Nicholson. The model is firm on this one: Cirkunov at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Mike Pyle vs Sean Spencer
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-9) taking on Sean Spencer (3-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pyle at 967, Spencer at 941. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Pyle the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sean Spencer over Mike Pyle. The model gives Spencer a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Pyle, but our model sees only 40%. That 4-point gap favoring Spencer is worth watching.
Joshua Burkman vs KJ Noons
The Lightweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-12) taking on KJ Noons (2-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Noons at 907 versus Burkman at 816. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Noons throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joshua Burkman over KJ Noons. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burkman at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Derrick Lewis vs Damian Grabowski
The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-11) taking on Damian Grabowski (0-3). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Lewis is rated at 1493 — 788 points above Grabowski's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grabowski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Damian Grabowski. We're leaning Lewis here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 48% implied while our model sees 67% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.
Justin Scoggins vs Ray Borg
The Flyweight matchup features Justin Scoggins (4-5) taking on Ray Borg (7-5). Scoggins is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Borg is rated at 1255 — 382 points above Scoggins's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ray Borg over Justin Scoggins. The model gives Borg a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Scoggins at 32% implied while our model sees 44% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.
Diego Rivas vs Noad Lahat
The Featherweight matchup features Diego Rivas (2-2) taking on Noad Lahat (2-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivas at 911, Lahat at 896. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lahat throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lahat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Noad Lahat over Diego Rivas. The model is firm on this one: Lahat at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Mickey Gall vs Mike Jackson
The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-7) taking on Mike Jackson (1-2).
Gall is rated at 824 — 195 points above Jackson's 629. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mickey Gall over Mike Jackson. The model is firm on this one: Gall at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Gall at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.
Alex White vs Artem Lobov
The Featherweight matchup features Alex White (4-6) taking on Artem Lobov (2-5). White is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Lobov carries a modest Elo edge (1015 to 940), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: White is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lobov brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving White the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alex White over Artem Lobov. The model gives White a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has White at 45% implied while our model sees 55% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.