UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Thompson is rated at 1329 — 260 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against Hendricks's wrestler approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Stephen Thompson. The model gives Hendricks a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Thompson at 30% implied while our model sees 42% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Jared Rosholt (6-1). Rosholt is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rosholt carries a modest Elo edge (1186 to 1129), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Rosholt has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Rosholt's wrestler approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roy Nelson over Jared Rosholt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nelson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Nelson, but our model sees only 50%. That 9-point gap favoring Rosholt is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Rafael Cavalcante (1-3). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Preux at 917, Cavalcante at 942. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcante throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Rafael Cavalcante. The model is firm on this one: Preux at 78%.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Zach Makovsky (3-3).

Benavidez is rated at 1291 — 296 points above Makovsky's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makovsky looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makovsky the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Makovsky is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Zach Makovsky. The model is firm on this one: Benavidez at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Benavidez at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-6) taking on Alex Nicholson (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cirkunov at 867, Nicholson at 893. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.5 more per 15 minutes. Nicholson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Alex Nicholson. The model is firm on this one: Cirkunov at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Sean Spencer (3-4).

Spencer carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pyle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Spencer over Mike Pyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spencer at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on KJ Noons (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Noons at 887 versus Burkman at 743. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noons throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: KJ Noons over Joshua Burkman. We're leaning Noons here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Damian Grabowski (0-2). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 613 points above Grabowski's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grabowski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Damian Grabowski. We're leaning Lewis here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 48% implied while our model sees 66% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Justin Scoggins (4-4) taking on Ray Borg (7-4). Scoggins is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 311 points above Scoggins's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Justin Scoggins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Borg at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Scoggins at 32% implied while our model sees 47% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Rivas (2-1) taking on Noad Lahat (2-1).

Rivas carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 919), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lahat throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lahat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Noad Lahat over Diego Rivas. The model is firm on this one: Lahat at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on Mike Jackson (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gall at 760, Jackson at 756. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over Mike Jackson. The model is firm on this one: Gall at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Gall at 81% implied while our model sees 86% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex White (4-5) taking on Artem Lobov (2-4). White is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lobov carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: White is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lobov brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving White the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Artem Lobov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward White at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has White at 45% implied while our model sees 52% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.