UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Sunday, January 17, 2016·Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by Decision - Split (R5)
Cruz 30%70% Dillashaw
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -238(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Cruz)
LightweightMISS
Eddie Alvarez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvarez 19%81% Pettis
STRONGMarket: 24% (-5.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -507(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Alvarez)
HeavyweightHIT
Travis Browne won by KO/TKO (R3)
Browne 60%40% Mitrione
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Browne)
LightweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 43%57% Pearson
LEANMarket: 42% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +193(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Trinaldo)
WelterweightMISS
Patrick Cote won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cote 44%56% Saunders
LEANMarket: 47% (-2.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Cote)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ed Herman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Herman 37%63% Boetsch
LEANMarket: 34% (+3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Herman)
LightweightHIT
Chris Wade won by Submission (R1)
Wade 91%9% Baghdad
STRONGMarket: 76% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +245(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Wade)
FeatherweightMISS
Luke Sanders won by Submission (R1)
Sanders 45%55% Blanco
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (-2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -257(favors Blanco)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Blanco)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Blanco)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by Submission (R3)
Felder 74%26% Cruickshank
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +156(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Cruickshank)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ilir Latifi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Latifi 69%31% O'Connell
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-1.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors O'Connell)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Latifi)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Rosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosa 53%47% Bochniak
TOSS-UPMarket: 69% (-16.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Bochniak)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Rosa)
BantamweightHIT
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R2)
Font 73%27% Gomez
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +160(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gomez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Francimar Barroso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barroso 57%43% Mutapcic
LEANMarket: 40% (+16.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +91(favors Barroso)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Barroso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Barroso)