UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Sunday, January 17, 2016·Boston, Massachusetts, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by Decision - Split (R5)
Cruz 39%61% Dillashaw
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Cruz)
LightweightMISS
Eddie Alvarez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvarez 17%83% Pettis
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 24% (-8.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -616(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Alvarez)
HeavyweightHIT
Travis Browne won by KO/TKO (R3)
Browne 60%40% Mitrione
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 58% (+1.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Browne)
LightweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 44%56% Pearson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Trinaldo)
WelterweightMISS
Patrick Cote won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cote 50%50% Saunders
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+2.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Cote)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ed Herman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Herman 34%66% Boetsch
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (+0.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Herman)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Chris Wade won by Submission (R1)
Wade 87%13% Baghdad
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +345(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Wade)
FeatherweightMISS
Luke Sanders won by Submission (R1)
Sanders 39%61% Blanco
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 48% (-8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -312(favors Blanco)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Blanco)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Blanco)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by Submission (R3)
Felder 73%27% Cruickshank
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +159(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Cruickshank)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ilir Latifi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Latifi 65%35% O'Connell
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-5.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -218(favors O'Connell)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Latifi)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Rosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosa 58%42% Bochniak
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 69% (-11.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Bochniak)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Rosa)
BantamweightHIT
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R2)
Font 70%30% Gomez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +250(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gomez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Francimar Barroso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barroso 55%45% Mutapcic
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 40% (+15.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +149(favors Barroso)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Barroso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Barroso)