UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-3) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dillashaw at 1691 versus Cruz at 1552. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Dillashaw's all-rounder approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Dominick Cruz. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Eddie Alvarez (4-3) taking on Anthony Pettis (11-9). Pettis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pettis carries a modest Elo edge (1579 to 1533), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Alvarez's striker game against Pettis's all-rounder approach. Alvarez brings a versatile approach, while Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Eddie Alvarez. The model is firm on this one: Pettis at 84%. The market implies 24% for Alvarez, but our model sees only 17%. That 8-point gap favoring Pettis is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-7-1) taking on Matt Mitrione (9-5). Mitrione will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione carries a modest Elo edge (1333 to 1300), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Browne is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Mitrione brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Browne the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Travis Browne over Matt Mitrione. The model gives Browne a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on Ross Pearson (12-13).

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 464 points above Pearson's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Francisco Trinaldo. The model gives Pearson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-11) taking on Ben Saunders (9-10). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cote is rated at 1256 — 319 points above Saunders's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cote's wrestler game against Saunders's knockout artist approach. Cote looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Saunders over Patrick Cote. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saunders at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-12) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-12). Herman will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Boetsch at 1280 versus Herman at 1139. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Herman's wrestler game against Boetsch's knockout artist approach. Herman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Ed Herman. We're leaning Boetsch here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Wade (5-2) taking on Mehdi Baghdad (0-2).

Wade is rated at 1214 — 305 points above Baghdad's 909. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wade throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Baghdad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Wade over Mehdi Baghdad. The model is firm on this one: Wade at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Wade at 76% implied while our model sees 87% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Luke Sanders (3-5) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-5). Blanco is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Blanco is rated at 1070 — 156 points above Sanders's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanders's all-rounder game against Blanco's striker approach. Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Blanco brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanco throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Luke Sanders. The model gives Blanco a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Sanders, but our model sees only 39%. That 9-point gap favoring Blanco is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-6) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Felder.

Felder is rated at 1449 — 492 points above Cruickshank's 957. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruickshank looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruickshank the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Felder over Daron Cruickshank. We're leaning Felder here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-7) taking on Sean O'Connell (2-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring O'Connell.

Latifi is rated at 1309 — 331 points above O'Connell's 977. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Latifi's knockout artist game against O'Connell's all-rounder approach. Latifi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while O'Connell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. O'Connell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilir Latifi over Sean O'Connell. We're leaning Latifi here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 71% for Latifi, but our model sees only 65%. That 5-point gap favoring O'Connell is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Rosa (5-8) taking on Kyle Bochniak (2-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rosa at 872, Bochniak at 900. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Rosa's wrestler game against Bochniak's striker approach. Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bochniak brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Bochniak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Rosa over Kyle Bochniak. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Rosa, but our model sees only 58%. That 12-point gap favoring Bochniak is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-9) taking on Joey Gomez (0-2). Gomez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Font is rated at 1406 — 567 points above Gomez's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gomez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over Joey Gomez. We're leaning Font here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Font at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Francimar Barroso (4-4) taking on Elvis Mutapcic (0-2-1). Barroso will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barroso is rated at 995 — 263 points above Mutapcic's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barroso throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Mutapcic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francimar Barroso over Elvis Mutapcic. The model gives Barroso a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barroso at 40% implied while our model sees 55% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.