UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-4-1) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-6). Yadong is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yadong at 1634, Cejudo at 1629. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Henry Cejudo. The model is firm on this one: Yadong at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Yadong at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-3) taking on Brendan Allen (14-4).

Allen carries a modest Elo edge (1783 to 1730), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hernandez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Brendan Allen. The model is firm on this one: Hernandez at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 74% implied while our model sees 77% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Rob Font (12-9) taking on Jean Matsumoto (3-2). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1406 versus Matsumoto at 1306. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsumoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Matsumoto over Rob Font. The model gives Matsumoto a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jean Silva (6-1) taking on Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-2).

Silva is rated at 1677 — 587 points above Baghdasaryan's 1090. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Baghdasaryan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Silva over Melsik Baghdasaryan. We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 80% for Silva, but our model sees only 74%. That 6-point gap favoring Baghdasaryan is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-6-1) taking on Julius Walker (1-2). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Menifield is rated at 1314 — 326 points above Walker's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Menifield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Julius Walker. The model gives Menifield a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Menifield, but our model sees only 59%. That 7-point gap favoring Walker is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (9-10-1) taking on Ibo Aslan (2-3). Aslan is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba is rated at 1305 — 506 points above Aslan's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aslan throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Ion Cutelaba. The model gives Aslan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (7-2) taking on Andre Fili (13-12). Fili will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Costa is rated at 1620 — 444 points above Fili's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Andre Fili. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Costa at 55% implied while our model sees 62% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (3-1) taking on Nick Klein (0-2). Abdul-Malik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1126 — 404 points above Klein's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdul-Malik throws significantly more leather — a 10.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Nick Klein. The model is firm on this one: Abdul-Malik at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Abdul-Malik at 89% implied while our model sees 93% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-6-1) taking on Javid Basharat (4-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Basharat.

There's a real Elo separation here: Simon at 1297 versus Basharat at 1156. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Simon's all-rounder game against Basharat's striker approach. Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Basharat brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Ricky Simon. We're leaning Basharat here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Simon, but our model sees only 27%. That 4-point gap favoring Basharat is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Austin Vanderford (1-1) taking on Nikolay Veretennikov (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Veretennikov at 1103 versus Vanderford at 997. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Veretennikov throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Veretennikov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vanderford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikolay Veretennikov over Austin Vanderford. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Veretennikov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 49% for Vanderford, but our model sees only 46%. That 3-point gap favoring Veretennikov is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Nursulton Ruziboev (4-1) taking on Eric McConico (1-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Ruziboev.

Ruziboev is rated at 1400 — 473 points above McConico's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruziboev throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruziboev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. McConico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Eric McConico. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruziboev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-5) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-4).

Bukauskas is rated at 1288 — 633 points above Cerqueira's 654. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bukauskas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Rafael Cerqueira. The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.