UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Saturday, November 7, 2015·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Vitor Belfort won by KO/TKO (R1)
Belfort 75%25% Henderson
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+1.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +255(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Belfort)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Henderson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Glover Teixeira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Teixeira 85%15% Cummins
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +323(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.5(favors Cummins)
BantamweightHIT
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 81%19% Birchak
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+1.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +312(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Birchak)
LightweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R3)
Oliveira 69%31% Hallmann
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+2.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +311(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Hallmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Rashid Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 64%36% Burns
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 65% (-1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +209(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Burns)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 90%10% Maldonado
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Maldonado)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Anderson)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Abel Trujillo won by DQ (R1)
Trujillo 45%55% Tibau
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 46% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Tibau)
LightweightHIT
Johnny Case won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Case 74%26% Cabral
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +266(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Case)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Case)
FeatherweightHIT
Thiago Tavares won by Submission (R1)
Tavares 58%42% Guida
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 41% (+17.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Tavares)
FeatherweightMISS
Chas Skelly won by Submission (R2)
Skelly 41%59% Souza
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -139(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Skelly)
WelterweightMISS
Viscardi Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 47%53% Umalatov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +45(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Umalatov)
BantamweightHIT
Jimmie Rivera won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rivera 63%37% Munhoz
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 39% (+24.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.9(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Munhoz)
BantamweightHIT
Matheus Nicolau won by Submission (R3)
Nicolau 67%33% Korea
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Korea)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Korea)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Korea)