UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Henderson at 1404 versus Belfort at 1255. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henderson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Belfort the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belfort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Dan Henderson. The model is firm on this one: Belfort at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Belfort at 73% implied while our model sees 82% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 729 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cummins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Patrick Cummins. The model is firm on this one: Teixeira at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Teixeira at 80% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-4) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 951 versus Birchak at 808. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Anthony Birchak. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Almeida at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Piotr Hallmann (2-3). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hallmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hallmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Piotr Hallmann. We're leaning Oliveira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (4-1) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magomedov at 1374, Burns at 1379. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashid Magomedov over Gilbert Burns. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magomedov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Magomedov, but our model sees only 51%. That 14-point gap favoring Burns is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-5). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 416 points above Maldonado's 1043. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Maldonado the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Fabio Maldonado. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Trujillo at 1031, Tibau at 1019. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Trujillo's striker game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Trujillo brings a versatile approach, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Abel Trujillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Johnny Case (4-1) taking on Yan Cabral (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Case at 1049 versus Cabral at 900. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Case throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Case is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Case over Yan Cabral. The model is firm on this one: Case at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Case at 72% implied while our model sees 77% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 198 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Clay Guida. We're leaning Tavares here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tavares at 41% implied while our model sees 65% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Edimilson Souza (3-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Skelly at 1251 versus Souza at 1166. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Souza has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edimilson Souza over Chas Skelly. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Viscardi Andrade (2-1) taking on Gasan Umalatov (1-2). Andrade will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Andrade is rated at 1141 — 264 points above Umalatov's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Umalatov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gasan Umalatov over Viscardi Andrade. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Umalatov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Rivera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera carries a modest Elo edge (1277 to 1211), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Pedro Munhoz. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rivera at 39% implied while our model sees 59% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on Bruno Korea (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nicolau at 1033 versus Korea at 890. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Korea throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Korea is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Korea has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Bruno Korea. The model gives Nicolau a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Nicolau, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Korea is worth watching.