UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 lands on Saturday, September 5, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 11 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demetrious Johnson vs John DodsonFlyweight | Demetrious Johnson | Strong | 90% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Frank MirHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Lean | 62% |
| Anthony Johnson vs Jimi ManuwaLight Heavyweight | Anthony Johnson | Strong | 88% |
| Corey Anderson vs Jan BlachowiczLight Heavyweight | Corey Anderson | Lean | 56% |
| Paige VanZant vs Alex ChambersWomen's Strawweight | Paige VanZant | Confident | 72% |
| Ross Pearson vs Paul FelderLightweight | Paul Felder | Lean | 60% |
| John Lineker vs Francisco RiveraBantamweight | John Lineker | Lean | 64% |
| Raquel Pennington vs Jessica AndradeWomen's Bantamweight | Jessica Andrade | Confident | 66% |
| Tiago dos Santos e Silva vs Clay CollardFeatherweight | Clay Collard | Lean | 65% |
| Joe Riggs vs Ron StallingsMiddleweight | Ron Stallings | Lean | 56% |
| Joaquim Silva vs Nazareno MalegarieLightweight | Joaquim Silva | Lean | 57% |
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Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson
The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1) taking on John Dodson (10-7).
Johnson is rated at 1671 — 296 points above Dodson's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Dodson's striker approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over John Dodson. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.
Andrei Arlovski vs Frank Mir
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-18) taking on Frank Mir (16-11).
Mir is rated at 1367 — 374 points above Arlovski's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Frank Mir. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Arlovski at 59% implied while our model sees 62% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.
Anthony Johnson vs Jimi Manuwa
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-6) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-6).
Johnson is rated at 1785 — 590 points above Manuwa's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Manuwa's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Manuwa throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Jimi Manuwa. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 84% implied while our model sees 88% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.
Corey Anderson vs Jan Blachowicz
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-5) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2).
Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 201 points above Anderson's 1502. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Corey Anderson over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Anderson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 43% implied while our model sees 56% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.
Paige VanZant vs Alex Chambers
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-4) taking on Alex Chambers (1-4).
VanZant is rated at 1071 — 297 points above Chambers's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. VanZant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Chambers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paige VanZant over Alex Chambers. We're leaning VanZant here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 91% for VanZant, but our model sees only 72%. That 19-point gap favoring Chambers is worth watching.
Ross Pearson vs Paul Felder
The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-13) taking on Paul Felder (9-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Felder.
Felder is rated at 1449 — 491 points above Pearson's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Felder's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paul Felder over Ross Pearson. The model gives Felder a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pearson at 20% implied while our model sees 40% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.
John Lineker vs Francisco Rivera
The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-4) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-6). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Lineker is rated at 1549 — 529 points above Rivera's 1020. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Lineker's knockout artist game against Rivera's all-rounder approach. Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Lineker over Francisco Rivera. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 55% implied while our model sees 64% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.
Raquel Pennington vs Jessica Andrade
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-6) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-13). Pennington is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Pennington is rated at 1433 — 193 points above Andrade's 1240. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington. We're leaning Andrade here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Tiago dos Santos e Silva vs Clay Collard
The Featherweight matchup features Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-2) taking on Clay Collard (1-3). Collard is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 866, Collard at 841. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Collard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Clay Collard over Tiago dos Santos e Silva. The model gives Collard a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Joe Riggs vs Ron Stallings
The Middleweight matchup features Joe Riggs (5-7) taking on Ron Stallings (1-2). Stallings is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Stallings is rated at 1068 — 209 points above Riggs's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stallings throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Stallings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ron Stallings over Joe Riggs. The model gives Stallings a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Riggs at 39% implied while our model sees 44% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.
Joaquim Silva vs Nazareno Malegarie
The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (7-5) taking on Nazareno Malegarie (0-1).
Silva is rated at 1170 — 272 points above Malegarie's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Malegarie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Malegarie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Malegarie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Nazareno Malegarie. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 43% implied while our model sees 57% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.