The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Sunday, July 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Thompson 53%47% Ellenberger
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-11.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ellenberger)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Submission (R2)
Usman 71%29% Hassan
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hassan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hassan)
WelterweightMISS
Michael Graves won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Graves 41%59% Luque
LEANMarket: 47% (-6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Masvidal 72%28% Ferreira
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +311(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Ferreira)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Submission (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 61%39% Magana
LEAN
→Elo gap: +85(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Magana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Magana)
FeatherweightHIT
Maximo Blanco won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blanco 53%47% Torre
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Torre)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Blanco)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Blanco)
MiddleweightMISS
Josh Samman won by Submission (R1)
Samman 44%56% Magalhaes
LEANMarket: 47% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -53(favors Magalhaes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Samman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Magalhaes)
BantamweightMISS
Jerrod Sanders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanders 16%84% Doane
STRONGMarket: 22% (-6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -248(favors Doane)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Doane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Doane)
MiddleweightHIT
Trevor Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 66%34% Miller
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (+18.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Miller)
WelterweightHIT
George Sullivan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sullivan 71%29% Waters
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +111(favors Sullivan)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Sullivan)
FlyweightHIT
Willie Gates won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gates 55%45% Montague
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +72(favors Gates)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Montague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Montague)