The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Sunday, July 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Thompson 53%47% Ellenberger
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-11.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ellenberger)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Submission (R2)
Usman 78%22% Hassan
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 65% (+12.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hassan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hassan)
WelterweightMISS
Michael Graves won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Graves 46%54% Luque
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Masvidal 70%30% Ferreira
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +354(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Ferreira)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Submission (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 61%39% Magana
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Magana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Magana)
FeatherweightHIT
Maximo Blanco won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blanco 53%47% Torre
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Torre)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Blanco)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Blanco)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Josh Samman won by Submission (R1)
Samman 46%54% Magalhaes
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (-0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -13(favors Magalhaes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Samman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Magalhaes)
BantamweightMISS
Jerrod Sanders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanders 19%81% Doane
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 22% (-3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -360(favors Doane)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Doane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Doane)
MiddleweightHIT
Trevor Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 56%44% Miller
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 48% (+7.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Miller)
WelterweightHIT
George Sullivan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sullivan 71%29% Waters
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +131(favors Sullivan)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Sullivan)
FlyweightHIT
Willie Gates won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gates 58%42% Montague
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 48% (+10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +98(favors Gates)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Montague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Montague)