The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Thompson is rated at 1329 — 482 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against Ellenberger's all-rounder approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Ellenberger is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Jake Ellenberger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Thompson, but our model sees only 53%. That 11-point gap favoring Ellenberger is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Hayder Hassan (0-1).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 1041 points above Hassan's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hassan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Hayder Hassan. We're leaning Usman here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Graves (2-0) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7). Luque will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luque carries a modest Elo edge (1250 to 1181), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Michael Graves. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Graves, but our model sees only 41%. That 6-point gap favoring Luque is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Cezar Ferreira (9-5). Ferreira is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 546 points above Ferreira's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Cezar Ferreira. We're leaning Masvidal here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Masvidal at 68% implied while our model sees 72% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Angela Magana (0-2). Magana will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Waterson-Gomez is rated at 908 — 189 points above Magana's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magana throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Waterson-Gomez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michelle Waterson-Gomez over Angela Magana. The model gives Waterson-Gomez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Maximo Blanco (4-4) taking on Mike de la Torre (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Torre.

Blanco carries a modest Elo edge (1013 to 936), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Blanco's all-rounder game against Torre's striker approach. Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Torre brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanco throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Mike de la Torre. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blanco at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Samman (3-1) taking on Caio Magalhaes (4-2). Samman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Magalhaes at 1099 versus Samman at 993. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Samman throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Josh Samman. The model gives Magalhaes a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Samman, but our model sees only 44%. That 3-point gap favoring Magalhaes is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jerrod Sanders (1-1) taking on Russell Doane (3-4).

Doane carries a modest Elo edge (952 to 908), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Doane throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Doane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Russell Doane over Jerrod Sanders. The model is firm on this one: Doane at 84%. The market implies 22% for Sanders, but our model sees only 16%. That 6-point gap favoring Doane is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-6) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).

Smith carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 886), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Smith over Dan Miller. We're leaning Smith here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 48% implied while our model sees 66% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features George Sullivan (3-3) taking on Dominic Waters (0-2). Waters will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sullivan at 884, Waters at 862. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sullivan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Waters has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sullivan over Dominic Waters. We're leaning Sullivan here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sullivan at 66% implied while our model sees 71% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Willie Gates (1-2) taking on Darrell Montague (0-2). Gates is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gates carries a modest Elo edge (816 to 773), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montague throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Montague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Montague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Willie Gates over Darrell Montague. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gates at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gates at 48% implied while our model sees 55% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.