UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Saturday, April 18, 2015·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Luke Rockhold won by Submission (R2)
Rockhold 56%44% Machida
LEANMarket: 60% (-4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -155(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rockhold)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Machida)
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by Submission (R1)
Souza 61%39% Camozzi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +683(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Souza)
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by Submission (R3)
Holloway 51%49% Swanson
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+8.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
VanZant 71%29% Herrig
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+16.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors VanZant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors VanZant)
LightweightMISS
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 49%51% Miller
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-12.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Dariush)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ovince Saint Preux won by KO/TKO (R1)
Preux 57%43% Cummins
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Cummins)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Gian Villante won by KO/TKO (R3)
Villante 24%76% Anderson
STRONGMarket: 23% (+1.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.2(favors Anderson)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Submission (R3)
Sterling 72%28% Mizugaki
CONFIDENTMarket: 77% (-4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Sterling)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by Submission (R3)
Means 53%47% Sullivan
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Sullivan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Sullivan)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Brandao won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brandao 59%41% Hettes
LEANMarket: 59% (-0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Hettes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hettes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Hettes)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Dempsey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dempsey 37%63% Gordon
LEANMarket: 20% (+17.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -109(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Gordon)