UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Saturday, April 18, 2015·Newark, New Jersey, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✓✓✓
Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Luke Rockhold won by Submission (R2)
Rockhold 53%47% Machida
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-7.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rockhold)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Machida)
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by Submission (R1)
Souza 70%30% Camozzi
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +880(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Souza)
FeatherweightMISS
Max Holloway won by Submission (R3)
Holloway 49%51% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+7.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
VanZant 74%26% Herrig
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+19.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +26(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors VanZant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors VanZant)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 51%49% Miller
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-11.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Dariush)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ovince Saint Preux won by KO/TKO (R1)
Preux 62%38% Cummins
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +195(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Cummins)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightMISS
Gian Villante won by KO/TKO (R3)
Villante 34%66% Anderson
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+11.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -223(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.2(favors Anderson)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Submission (R3)
Sterling 86%14% Mizugaki
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Sterling)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by Submission (R3)
Means 51%49% Sullivan
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-9.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -220(favors Sullivan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Sullivan)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Brandao won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brandao 54%46% Hettes
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-5.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hettes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Hettes)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Dempsey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dempsey 64%36% Gordon
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 20% (+44.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -136(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Gordon)