UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-4) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 191 points above Rockhold's 1302. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rockhold throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Lyoto Machida. The model gives Rockhold a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Rockhold, but our model sees only 56%. That 4-point gap favoring Machida is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9). Camozzi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Souza is rated at 1187 — 202 points above Camozzi's 986. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Chris Camozzi. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 642 points above Swanson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Swanson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Holloway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Cub Swanson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holloway at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 42% implied while our model sees 51% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-3) taking on Felice Herrig (5-4).

VanZant is rated at 1038 — 216 points above Herrig's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. VanZant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. VanZant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paige VanZant over Felice Herrig. We're leaning VanZant here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has VanZant at 54% implied while our model sees 71% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 224 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Dariush, but our model sees only 49%. That 13-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6). Preux will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Preux carries a modest Elo edge (917 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Cummins's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Patrick Cummins. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Corey Anderson (10-4). Anderson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 754 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.2 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Gian Villante. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5).

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 689 points above Mizugaki's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mizugaki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Takeya Mizugaki. We're leaning Sterling here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 77% for Sterling, but our model sees only 72%. That 4-point gap favoring Mizugaki is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on George Sullivan (3-3). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Sullivan at 884. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sullivan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sullivan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sullivan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over George Sullivan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Means at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Means, but our model sees only 53%. That 8-point gap favoring Sullivan is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Brandao (6-3) taking on Jimy Hettes (3-2). Hettes is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Brandao is rated at 1131 — 200 points above Hettes's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hettes throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hettes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Brandao over Jimy Hettes. The model gives Brandao a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Dempsey (1-2) taking on Eddie Gordon (1-2). Gordon is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gordon carries a modest Elo edge (832 to 770), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Gordon over Chris Dempsey. The model gives Gordon a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dempsey at 20% implied while our model sees 37% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.