UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Saturday, April 11, 2015·Krakow, Poland·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Mirko Filipovic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Filipovic 27%73% Gonzaga
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-6.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -221(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Gonzaga)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jimi Manuwa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Manuwa 54%46% Blachowicz
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-2.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Manuwa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Blachowicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Manuwa)
WelterweightHIT
Pawel Pawlak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pawlak 65%35% Westcott
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (+30.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -9(favors Westcott)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Pawlak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Westcott)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Submission (R1)
Moroz 24%76% Wood
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 14% (+9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.3(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Wood)
WelterweightHIT
Leon Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 62%38% Baczynski
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 54% (+8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Baczynski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Baczynski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Baczynski)
MiddleweightHIT
Bartosz Fabinski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fabinski 60%40% McLellan
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 54% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors McLellan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors McLellan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors McLellan)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraes 79%21% Lebout
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 80% (-0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +277(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightMISS
Yaotzin Meza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Meza 41%59% Stasiak
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 46% (-4.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -165(favors Stasiak)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Meza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Meza)
HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Hamilton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hamilton 61%39% Omielanczuk
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 42% (+19.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -63(favors Omielanczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Hamilton)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Aleksandra Albu won by Submission (R2)
Albu 68%32% Badurek
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Badurek)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Badurek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Badurek)
LightweightHIT
Stevie Ray won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ray 62%38% Bandel
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 63% (-1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +210(favors Ray)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Bandel)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bandel)
FeatherweightHIT
Taylor Lapilus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lapilus 70%30% Lee
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)