UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Saturday, April 11, 2015·Krakow, Poland
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Mirko Filipovic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Filipovic 27%73% Gonzaga
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -210(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Gonzaga)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jimi Manuwa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Manuwa 43%57% Blachowicz
LEANMarket: 56% (-13.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Manuwa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Blachowicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Manuwa)
WelterweightMISS
Pawel Pawlak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pawlak 46%54% Westcott
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+11.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +1(favors Pawlak)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Pawlak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Westcott)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Submission (R1)
Moroz 24%76% Wood
STRONGMarket: 14% (+9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.3(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Wood)
WelterweightHIT
Leon Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 63%37% Baczynski
LEANMarket: 54% (+9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Baczynski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Baczynski)
MiddleweightHIT
Bartosz Fabinski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fabinski 61%39% McLellan
LEANMarket: 54% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors McLellan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors McLellan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors McLellan)
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraes 82%18% Lebout
STRONGMarket: 80% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +173(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Moraes)
FeatherweightMISS
Yaotzin Meza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Meza 45%55% Stasiak
LEANMarket: 46% (-0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -94(favors Stasiak)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Meza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Meza)
HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Hamilton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hamilton 64%36% Omielanczuk
LEANMarket: 42% (+21.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Omielanczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Hamilton)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Aleksandra Albu won by Submission (R2)
Albu 45%55% Badurek
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Badurek)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Badurek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Badurek)
LightweightHIT
Stevie Ray won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ray 69%31% Bandel
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +136(favors Ray)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Bandel)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bandel)
FeatherweightHIT
Taylor Lapilus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lapilus 69%31% Lee
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)