UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (4-6) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Gonzaga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Filipovic is rated at 1145 — 178 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Filipovic is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Filipovic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Mirko Filipovic. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Filipovic, but our model sees only 27%. That 7-point gap favoring Gonzaga is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 509 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Manuwa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Jimi Manuwa. The model gives Blachowicz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Manuwa, but our model sees only 43%. That 13-point gap favoring Blachowicz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Pawel Pawlak (1-1) taking on Sheldon Westcott (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pawlak at 898, Westcott at 909. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pawlak throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Westcott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pawlak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sheldon Westcott over Pawel Pawlak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Westcott at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pawlak at 35% implied while our model sees 46% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-5) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1101 versus Moroz at 952. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Maryna Moroz. The model is firm on this one: Wood at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 14% implied while our model sees 24% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-5).

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 800 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Baczynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Seth Baczynski. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 54% implied while our model sees 63% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bartosz Fabinski (3-2) taking on Garreth McLellan (1-3). Fabinski will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fabinski at 909 versus McLellan at 811. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. McLellan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McLellan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McLellan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bartosz Fabinski over Garreth McLellan. The model gives Fabinski a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Fabinski at 54% implied while our model sees 61% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Mickael Lebout (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moraes at 1097 versus Lebout at 991. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Lebout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Mickael Lebout. The model is firm on this one: Moraes at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Yaotzin Meza (2-3) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Meza.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Meza at 893, Stasiak at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meza throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Meza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Stasiak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damian Stasiak over Yaotzin Meza. The model gives Stasiak a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Hamilton (3-6) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4). Hamilton is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Omielanczuk is rated at 960 — 238 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Hamilton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Daniel Omielanczuk. The model gives Hamilton a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hamilton at 42% implied while our model sees 64% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Aleksandra Albu (2-1) taking on Izabela Badurek (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Albu at 917, Badurek at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Badurek throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Badurek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Badurek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Izabela Badurek over Aleksandra Albu. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Badurek at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Marcin Bandel (0-1).

Ray is rated at 1193 — 409 points above Bandel's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bandel throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bandel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Marcin Bandel. We're leaning Ray here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ray at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Rocky Lee (0-0).

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 323 points above Lee's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Rocky Lee. We're leaning Lapilus here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lapilus at 65% implied while our model sees 69% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.