UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Werdum is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 326 points above Hunt's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's all-rounder game against Hunt's striker approach. Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hunt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Mark Hunt. The model is firm on this one: Werdum at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Werdum at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10).

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 493 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gastelum's all-rounder game against Ellenberger's striker approach. Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ellenberger brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Jake Ellenberger. We're leaning Gastelum here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gastelum at 67% implied while our model sees 71% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Lamas is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 217 points above Bermudez's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lamas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Ricardo Lamas. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lamas at 37% implied while our model sees 44% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Augusto Montano (1-1) taking on Chris Heatherly (0-1).

Montano carries a modest Elo edge (887 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heatherly throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Heatherly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Augusto Montano over Chris Heatherly. The model gives Montano a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Hector Urbina (1-1) taking on Edgar Garcia (0-3).

Urbina is rated at 915 — 265 points above Garcia's 650. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Urbina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hector Urbina over Edgar Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Urbina at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Urbina at 36% implied while our model sees 52% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Leonardo Morales (0-1).

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 754 points above Morales's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Morales over Yair Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Jose Quinonez (5-3). Quinonez is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1082 — 200 points above Quinonez's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Alejandro Perez. We're leaning Quinonez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Perez, but our model sees only 26%. That 7-point gap favoring Quinonez is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-9) taking on Leslie Smith (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Smith is rated at 1116 — 166 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Eye over Leslie Smith. We're leaning Eye here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Eye at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Humberto Brown Morrison (0-0).

Morrison carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morrison throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morrison is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morrison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Humberto Brown Morrison. The model is firm on this one: Benitez at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Benitez at 76% implied while our model sees 86% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Henry Briones (1-3) taking on Guido Cannetti (4-5).

Cannetti is rated at 1005 — 197 points above Briones's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cannetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Guido Cannetti over Henry Briones. The model gives Cannetti a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marco Beltran (3-2) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 643 points above Beltran's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Marco Beltran. The model is firm on this one: Vera at 81%. The market implies 29% for Beltran, but our model sees only 19%. That 10-point gap favoring Vera is worth watching.