UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 lands on Saturday, October 25, 2014 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with 11 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Aldo vs Chad MendesFeatherweight | Jose Aldo | Toss-up | 54% |
| Phil Davis vs Glover TeixeiraLight Heavyweight | Phil Davis | Lean | 65% |
| Fabio Maldonado vs Hans StringerLight Heavyweight | Fabio Maldonado | Lean | 61% |
| Darren Elkins vs Lucas MartinsFeatherweight | Darren Elkins | Lean | 57% |
| Beneil Dariush vs Diego FerreiraLightweight | Diego Ferreira | Confident | 67% |
| Neil Magny vs William MacarioWelterweight | William Macario | Toss-up | 50% |
| Yan Cabral vs Naoyuki KotaniLightweight | Yan Cabral | Strong | 83% |
| Wilson Reis vs Scott JorgensenFlyweight | Wilson Reis | Lean | 58% |
| Andre Fili vs Felipe ArantesFeatherweight | Andre Fili | Toss-up | 50% |
| Gilbert Burns vs Christos GiagosLightweight | Gilbert Burns | Lean | 65% |
| Anthony Rocco Martin vs Fabricio CamoesLightweight | Anthony Rocco Martin | Lean | 58% |
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Jose Aldo vs Chad Mendes
The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-9) taking on Chad Mendes (9-5). Aldo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Aldo at 1541, Mendes at 1519. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jose Aldo over Chad Mendes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Phil Davis vs Glover Teixeira
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-3) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-7). Davis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Teixeira at 1677 versus Davis at 1549. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Phil Davis over Glover Teixeira. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Fabio Maldonado vs Hans Stringer
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-6) taking on Hans Stringer (1-2).
Maldonado is rated at 1095 — 354 points above Stringer's 741. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stringer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabio Maldonado over Hans Stringer. The model gives Maldonado a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Darren Elkins vs Lucas Martins
The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-11) taking on Lucas Martins (4-3).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Elkins at 1191, Martins at 1161. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Darren Elkins over Lucas Martins. The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Beneil Dariush vs Diego Ferreira
The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-1) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-7).
Dariush is rated at 1557 — 230 points above Ferreira's 1327. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Beneil Dariush. We're leaning Ferreira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Neil Magny vs William Macario
The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on William Macario (1-3). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Magny is rated at 1418 — 726 points above Macario's 692. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Macario throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Macario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Macario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: William Macario over Neil Magny. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Macario at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Yan Cabral vs Naoyuki Kotani
The Lightweight matchup features Yan Cabral (2-3) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-5). Cabral is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Cabral is rated at 912 — 317 points above Kotani's 595. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cabral throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cabral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yan Cabral over Naoyuki Kotani. The model is firm on this one: Cabral at 83%.
Wilson Reis vs Scott Jorgensen
The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-6) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-8).
Reis is rated at 1141 — 397 points above Jorgensen's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Wilson Reis over Scott Jorgensen. The model gives Reis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Andre Fili vs Felipe Arantes
The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Fili.
Fili is rated at 1176 — 184 points above Arantes's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Arantes's all-rounder approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Arantes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Arantes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andre Fili over Felipe Arantes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fili at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Gilbert Burns vs Christos Giagos
The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Christos Giagos (6-8).
Burns is rated at 1542 — 500 points above Giagos's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Giagos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Christos Giagos. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Fabricio Camoes
The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-6) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-4-1). Martin is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Martin is rated at 1520 — 651 points above Camoes's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Martin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Camoes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Camoes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Camoes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Fabricio Camoes. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.