UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Friday, September 5, 2014·Ledyard, Connecticut, USA·9 fights
Model: 6/9(67%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by Submission (R3)
Souza 58%42% Mousasi
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +287(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Souza)
HeavyweightHIT
Ben Rothwell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rothwell 60%40% Overeem
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Rothwell)
HeavyweightMISS
Matt Mitrione won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mitrione 49%51% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 67%
Under 67%Over 33%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Lewis)
LightweightMISS
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lauzon 35%65% Chiesa
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Chiesa)
FlyweightMISS
John Moraga won by Submission (R2)
Moraga 36%64% Scoggins
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Scoggins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Scoggins)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R3)
Iaquinta 70%30% Damm
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Damm)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Iaquinta)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Rafael Natal won by Decision - Split (R3)
Natal 69%31% Camozzi
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +172(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Natal)
BantamweightHIT
Chris Beal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Beal 72%28% Matsuda
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +191(favors Beal)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Beal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Matsuda)
FeatherweightHIT
Chas Skelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Skelly 50%50% Soriano
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +224(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Skelly)