UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-7) taking on Gegard Mousasi (9-3). Mousasi will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mousasi is rated at 1837 — 456 points above Souza's 1381. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Gegard Mousasi. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-8) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-8).

Overeem is rated at 1572 — 352 points above Rothwell's 1220. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rothwell's all-rounder game against Overeem's striker approach. Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Overeem brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Rothwell over Alistair Overeem. The model gives Rothwell a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-5) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-11). Mitrione will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1493 — 161 points above Mitrione's 1333. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Matt Mitrione. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lewis at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (15-12) taking on Michael Chiesa (15-7). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1566 — 467 points above Lauzon's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Chiesa a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-6) taking on Justin Scoggins (4-5).

Moraga is rated at 1225 — 352 points above Scoggins's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Moraga's all-rounder game against Scoggins's striker approach. Moraga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Scoggins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Scoggins over John Moraga. The model gives Scoggins a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-6) taking on Rodrigo Damm (3-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Iaquinta.

Iaquinta is rated at 1361 — 429 points above Damm's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Rodrigo Damm. We're leaning Iaquinta here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-7-1) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Natal at 1035, Camozzi at 1038. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Natal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Chris Camozzi. We're leaning Natal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Beal (2-3) taking on Tateki Matsuda (0-2).

Matsuda carries a modest Elo edge (823 to 754), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beal throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Matsuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Beal over Tateki Matsuda. We're leaning Beal here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (8-3) taking on Sean Soriano (0-5). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Skelly is rated at 1303 — 678 points above Soriano's 625. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chas Skelly over Sean Soriano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Skelly at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.