UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos lands on Saturday, August 23, 2014 in Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs Benson HendersonLightweight | Benson Henderson | Lean | 57% |
| Jordan Mein vs Mike PyleWelterweight | Jordan Mein | Lean | 60% |
| Thales Leites vs Francis CarmontMiddleweight | Thales Leites | Lean | 63% |
| Max Holloway vs Clay CollardCatch Weight | Max Holloway | Lean | 63% |
| James Vick vs Valmir LazaroLightweight | James Vick | Lean | 55% |
| Chas Skelly vs Tom NiinimakiFeatherweight | Chas Skelly | Lean | 62% |
| Neil Magny vs Alex GarciaWelterweight | Neil Magny | Toss-up | 51% |
| Beneil Dariush vs Anthony Rocco MartinLightweight | Anthony Rocco Martin | Confident | 66% |
| Matt Hobar vs Aaron PhillipsBantamweight | Aaron Phillips | Lean | 58% |
| Ben Saunders vs Chris HeatherlyWelterweight | Ben Saunders | Lean | 62% |
| Wilson Reis vs Joby SanchezFlyweight | Joby Sanchez | Lean | 58% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Benson Henderson
The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Benson Henderson (10-3).
Henderson is rated at 1507 — 225 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Benson Henderson over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Jordan Mein vs Mike Pyle
The Welterweight matchup features Jordan Mein (4-4) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8).
Mein is rated at 1192 — 360 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Mein's all-rounder game against Pyle's knockout artist approach. Mein is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mein throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jordan Mein over Mike Pyle. The model gives Mein a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Thales Leites vs Francis Carmont
The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Francis Carmont (6-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leites at 1176, Carmont at 1167. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Carmont is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leites the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Carmont throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Carmont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thales Leites over Francis Carmont. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Max Holloway vs Clay Collard
The Catch Weight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Clay Collard (1-2). Collard will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1006 points above Collard's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Collard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Collard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Max Holloway over Clay Collard. The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
James Vick vs Valmir Lazaro
The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Valmir Lazaro (1-1). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Vick carries a modest Elo edge (1026 to 971), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lazaro throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lazaro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lazaro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: James Vick over Valmir Lazaro. The model gives Vick a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Chas Skelly vs Tom Niinimaki
The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Tom Niinimaki (1-2). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Skelly is rated at 1251 — 480 points above Niinimaki's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Skelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Niinimaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chas Skelly over Tom Niinimaki. The model gives Skelly a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Neil Magny vs Alex Garcia
The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Alex Garcia (5-4). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
Magny is rated at 1270 — 264 points above Garcia's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Magny's striker game against Garcia's wrestler approach. Magny brings a versatile approach, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Neil Magny over Alex Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magny at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Beneil Dariush vs Anthony Rocco Martin
The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dariush at 1437, Martin at 1419. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Beneil Dariush. We're leaning Martin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Hobar vs Aaron Phillips
The Bantamweight matchup features Matt Hobar (1-1) taking on Aaron Phillips (0-3).
Hobar is rated at 897 — 163 points above Phillips's 733. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hobar throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Aaron Phillips over Matt Hobar. The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Ben Saunders vs Chris Heatherly
The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Chris Heatherly (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Saunders at 812, Heatherly at 831. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Heatherly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Heatherly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ben Saunders over Chris Heatherly. The model gives Saunders a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Wilson Reis vs Joby Sanchez
The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Joby Sanchez (1-3). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Reis is rated at 1083 — 351 points above Sanchez's 731. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Reis throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joby Sanchez over Wilson Reis. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.