UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Robbie Lawler (15-10) taking on Matt Brown (17-13).

Lawler is rated at 1418 — 162 points above Brown's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Brown the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Robbie Lawler. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-6) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-7). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1785 — 505 points above Nogueira's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Nogueira's knockout artist approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Rogerio Nogueira. We're leaning Johnson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (10-7) taking on Clay Guida (18-19). Guida will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1173 versus Guida at 1054. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Clay Guida. We're leaning Bermudez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (15-12-1) taking on Josh Thomson (3-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Green at 1371, Thomson at 1357. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Thomson's striker approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thomson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Josh Thomson. The model gives Green a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-10) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-6). Masvidal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal is rated at 1642 — 685 points above Cruickshank's 957. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's knockout artist game against Cruickshank's all-rounder approach. Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cruickshank is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Daron Cruickshank. We're leaning Masvidal here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-7) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-5). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cummins is rated at 1032 — 163 points above Kingsbury's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Kyle Kingsbury. The model is firm on this one: Cummins at 75%.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-14) taking on Hernani Perpetuo (0-2).

Means is rated at 1042 — 231 points above Perpetuo's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Hernani Perpetuo. We're leaning Means here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike de la Torre (2-4) taking on Brian Ortega (8-5). Torre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ortega is rated at 1653 — 702 points above Torre's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Torre's striker game against Ortega's all-rounder approach. Torre brings a versatile approach, while Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torre throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Torre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ortega has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Ortega over Mike de la Torre. We're leaning Ortega here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-2) taking on Akbarh Arreola (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 866, Arreola at 860. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arreola throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arreola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arreola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tiago dos Santos e Silva over Akbarh Arreola. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Andreas Stahl (0-2).

Burns is rated at 1542 — 771 points above Stahl's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stahl throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stahl is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stahl has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andreas Stahl over Gilbert Burns. The model gives Stahl a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-5) taking on Juliana Lima (3-4).

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1348 — 437 points above Lima's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Jedrzejczyk is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Juliana Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jedrzejczyk at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Noad Lahat (2-2) taking on Steven Siler (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lahat at 896, Siler at 892. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lahat throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Siler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Siler over Noad Lahat. We're leaning Siler here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.