UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Chris Weidman (12-8) taking on Lyoto Machida (16-8). Weidman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Machida is rated at 1596 — 336 points above Weidman's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Weidman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weidman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Lyoto Machida. We're leaning Weidman here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-2) taking on Alexis Davis (8-6).

Rousey is rated at 1307 — 289 points above Davis's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rousey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rousey the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Alexis Davis. The model gives Rousey a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-9) taking on Thiago Santos (14-10). Hall will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hall carries a modest Elo edge (1504 to 1426), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Thiago Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hall at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Russell Doane (3-5) taking on Marcus Brimage (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Doane.

There's a real Elo separation here: Doane at 920 versus Brimage at 787. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Doane's wrestler game against Brimage's striker approach. Doane looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brimage brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Russell Doane over Marcus Brimage. The model gives Doane a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-7) taking on Alex Caceres (16-13). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Faber is rated at 1433 — 168 points above Caceres's 1264. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Caceres is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Urijah Faber. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-5) taking on Ildemar Alcantara (4-3). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Robertson is rated at 1118 — 194 points above Alcantara's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alcantara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Kenny Robertson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alcantara at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Bruno Santos (1-2) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Camozzi at 1038 versus Santos at 941. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Santos over Chris Camozzi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-9) taking on George Roop (5-8). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Roop.

Font is rated at 1406 — 445 points above Roop's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over George Roop. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Zachrich (1-2) taking on Guilherme Vasconcelos (0-1).

Zachrich carries a modest Elo edge (877 to 846), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zachrich throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vasconcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vasconcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Zachrich over Guilherme Vasconcelos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zachrich at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Casey (1-3-1) taking on Bubba Bush (0-1).

Casey is rated at 897 — 155 points above Bush's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bubba Bush over Kevin Casey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bush at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.