UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Rustam Khabilov (9-3). Khabilov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Henderson at 1507 versus Khabilov at 1389. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Khabilov's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Khabilov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Rustam Khabilov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Henderson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 290 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Diego Sanchez. The model gives Pearson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on John Moraga (8-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moraga.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dodson at 1256 versus Moraga at 1166. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Moraga has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Moraga's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over John Moraga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dodson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Jason High (2-2). High will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 198 points above High's 1084. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Jason High. We're leaning Anjos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Piotr Hallmann (2-3) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9).

Hallmann carries a modest Elo edge (882 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hallmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piotr Hallmann over Yves Edwards. We're leaning Hallmann here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Erik Perez (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1303 versus Caraway at 1191. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Caraway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Perez over Bryan Caraway. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-3). Meza is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 342 points above Meza's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's striker game against Meza's wrestler approach. Pettis brings a versatile approach, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Yaotzin Meza. We're leaning Pettis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Lance Benoist (1-2) taking on Bobby Voelker (0-3).

Benoist is rated at 1024 — 287 points above Voelker's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Voelker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Voelker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benoist has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lance Benoist over Bobby Voelker. The model is firm on this one: Benoist at 78%.

The Flyweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-7) taking on Danny Martinez (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 878 versus Jorgensen at 735. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Martinez over Scott Jorgensen. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-4) taking on Jake Lindsey (0-2).

Tuck is rated at 1006 — 282 points above Lindsey's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lindsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Tuck over Jake Lindsey. The model gives Tuck a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Roger Narvaez (1-1).

Narvaez carries a modest Elo edge (916 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Narvaez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Narvaez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Roger Narvaez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.