UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5). Nogueira is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nelson at 1129 versus Nogueira at 1008. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Nogueira's submission artist approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Nogueira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nogueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira over Roy Nelson. The model gives Nogueira a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-2).

Kawajiri is rated at 1092 — 166 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kawajiri throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kawajiri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Tatsuya Kawajiri. We're leaning Guida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-2) taking on John Howard (7-6). LaFlare is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

LaFlare is rated at 1174 — 241 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is LaFlare's striker game against Howard's all-rounder approach. LaFlare brings a versatile approach, while Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. LaFlare throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. LaFlare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over John Howard. We're leaning LaFlare here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-4) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1). Nijem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 493 points above Nijem's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Beneil Dariush. The model is firm on this one: Nijem at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-1) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4).

Rosholt is rated at 1186 — 226 points above Omielanczuk's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Rosholt's wrestler game against Omielanczuk's striker approach. Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Omielanczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omielanczuk throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Omielanczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Daniel Omielanczuk. We're leaning Rosholt here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6). Leites will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1176 — 242 points above Smith's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Trevor Smith. We're leaning Leites here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jim Alers (1-1) taking on Alan Omer (0-1).

Alers carries a modest Elo edge (882 to 843), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omer throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Omer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Omer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Omer over Jim Alers. The model gives Omer a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Johnny Bedford (2-2). Bedford is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 188 points above Bedford's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedford throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bedford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Johnny Bedford. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yahya at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.