UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Petr Yan (12-4) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-6-1).

Yan is rated at 1857 — 247 points above Figueiredo's 1610. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Deiveson Figueiredo. We're leaning Yan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-4) taking on Tabatha Ricci (7-4). Xiaonan is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Xiaonan at 1476 versus Ricci at 1358. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Ricci's all-rounder approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Yan Xiaonan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ricci at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-5) taking on Song Kenan (6-5).

Salikhov is rated at 1313 — 244 points above Kenan's 1069. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Song Kenan. The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gabriella Fernandes (3-3) taking on Wang Cong (4-1).

Cong is rated at 1340 — 260 points above Fernandes's 1081. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Fernandes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cong throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fernandes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wang Cong over Gabriella Fernandes. The model is firm on this one: Cong at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (9-1) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (9-7). Ulberg is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ulberg is rated at 1855 — 303 points above Oezdemir's 1552. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's knockout artist game against Oezdemir's all-rounder approach. Ulberg is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oezdemir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir. We're leaning Ulberg here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zhang Mingyang (3-1) taking on Ozzy Diaz (1-1). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Mingyang is rated at 1282 — 216 points above Diaz's 1066. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mingyang throws significantly more leather — a 10.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Mingyang over Ozzy Diaz. The model is firm on this one: Mingyang at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Mingyang at 68% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features SuYoung You (3-1) taking on Baergeng Jieleyisi (0-1). Jieleyisi is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

You is rated at 1084 — 212 points above Jieleyisi's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. You rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jieleyisi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jieleyisi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jieleyisi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Baergeng Jieleyisi over SuYoung You. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jieleyisi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features DongHun Choi (1-0) taking on Kiru Sahota (0-1). Sahota is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Choi is rated at 1191 — 382 points above Sahota's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sahota throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sahota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sahota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: DongHun Choi over Kiru Sahota. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shi Ming (1-1) taking on Feng Xiaocan (0-1). Xiaocan is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Ming is rated at 983 — 174 points above Xiaocan's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaocan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Xiaocan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Xiaocan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Feng Xiaocan over Shi Ming. The model is firm on this one: Xiaocan at 80%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Carlos Hernandez (3-4) taking on Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (2-1). Tumendemberel will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tumendemberel is rated at 1170 — 250 points above Hernandez's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Tumendemberel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Carlos Hernandez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tumendemberel at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Hernandez, but our model sees only 46%. That 8-point gap favoring Tumendemberel is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Lone'er Kavanagh (3-1) taking on Jose Ochoa (1-2).

Kavanagh is rated at 1256 — 168 points above Ochoa's 1089. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ochoa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ochoa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ochoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh over Jose Ochoa. We're leaning Kavanagh here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Xiao Long (1-3) taking on Quang Le (1-3).

Long is rated at 981 — 158 points above Le's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Long throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Long has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Xiao Long over Quang Le. We're leaning Long here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Long at 57% implied while our model sees 65% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nikolas Motta (3-3) taking on Maheshate (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Maheshate.

Motta is rated at 1154 — 339 points above Maheshate's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maheshate throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maheshate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maheshate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maheshate over Nikolas Motta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maheshate at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.