UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-4) taking on John Hathaway (7-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kim at 1471 versus Hathaway at 1351. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Hathaway has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hathaway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over John Hathaway. The model gives Kim a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Zhang Lipeng (2-2) taking on Sai Wang (1-1).

Wang is rated at 1041 — 204 points above Lipeng's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sai Wang over Zhang Lipeng. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wang at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-5) taking on Shawn Jordan (6-4). Mitrione is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitrione at 1333 versus Jordan at 1200. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jordan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Shawn Jordan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitrione at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Hatsu Hioki (3-5) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-5). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Menjivar carries a modest Elo edge (958 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Menjivar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Menjivar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Ivan Menjivar. We're leaning Hioki here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yui Chul Nam (1-2) taking on Kazuki Tokudome (1-3).

Nam carries a modest Elo edge (832 to 779), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tokudome throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokudome is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kazuki Tokudome over Yui Chul Nam. We're leaning Tokudome here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vaughan Lee (3-5) taking on Nam Phan (2-6). Phan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (907 to 857), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lee's wrestler game against Phan's striker approach. Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vaughan Lee over Nam Phan. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Anying Wang (1-1) taking on Albert Cheng (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wang at 904 versus Cheng at 809. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cheng throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cheng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cheng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anying Wang over Albert Cheng. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wang at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Mark Eddiva (1-3) taking on Jumabieke Tuerxun (0-3).

Eddiva is rated at 794 — 175 points above Tuerxun's 618. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuerxun throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuerxun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuerxun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jumabieke Tuerxun over Mark Eddiva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuerxun at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.