UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on John Hathaway (7-1).

Kim carries a modest Elo edge (1318 to 1241), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Hathaway has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hathaway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over John Hathaway. The model gives Kim a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Zhang Lipeng (2-1) taking on Sai Wang (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wang at 1020 versus Lipeng at 916. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Lipeng over Sai Wang. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lipeng at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Shawn Jordan (6-3). Mitrione is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Mitrione carries a modest Elo edge (1200 to 1164), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jordan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Shawn Jordan. The model gives Mitrione a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Hatsu Hioki (3-4) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-4). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hioki at 875, Menjivar at 895. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Menjivar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Menjivar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Ivan Menjivar. We're leaning Hioki here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yui Chul Nam (1-1) taking on Kazuki Tokudome (1-2).

Nam carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tokudome throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokudome is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kazuki Tokudome over Yui Chul Nam. We're leaning Tokudome here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vaughan Lee (3-4) taking on Nam Phan (2-5). Phan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 859), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lee's wrestler game against Phan's striker approach. Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vaughan Lee over Nam Phan. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Anying Wang (1-0) taking on Albert Cheng (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wang at 955 versus Cheng at 873. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cheng throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cheng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cheng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anying Wang over Albert Cheng. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wang at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Mark Eddiva (1-2) taking on Jumabieke Tuerxun (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Eddiva at 836 versus Tuerxun at 728. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuerxun throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuerxun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuerxun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jumabieke Tuerxun over Mark Eddiva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuerxun at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.