UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Saturday, February 1, 2014·Newark, New Jersey, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Renan Barao won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barao 69%31% Faber
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Faber)
FeatherweightHIT
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Aldo 62%38% Lamas
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +271(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Aldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lamas)
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Overeem 58%42% Mir
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -274(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Mir)
FlyweightMISS
Ali Bagautinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bagautinov 48%52% Lineker
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Bagautinov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Bagautinov)
LightweightMISS
Abel Trujillo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Trujillo 45%55% Varner
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Varner)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Varner)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Alan Patrick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Patrick 62%38% Makdessi
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Patrick)
FlyweightHIT
Chris Cariaso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cariaso 56%44% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +30(favors Cariaso)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Cariaso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cariaso)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Catone won by Decision - Split (R3)
Catone 53%47% Watson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -229(favors Watson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Watson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Catone)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Iaquinta 73%27% Lee
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +209(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Iaquinta)
Early Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Clint Hester won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hester 56%44% Enz
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +415(favors Hester)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Hester)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Hester)
LightweightMISS
Rashid Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 38%62% Martin
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martin)
WelterweightHIT
Neil Magny won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magny 75%25% Umalatov
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -124(favors Umalatov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Magny)