UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Saturday, January 25, 2014·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Split (R5)
Henderson 65%35% Thomson
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +178(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Thomson)
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miocic 69%31% Gonzaga
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Gonzaga)
LightweightMISS
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cerrone 46%54% Martins
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +226(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Cerrone)
FeatherweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 48%52% Elkins
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Stephens)
BantamweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Submission (R3)
Caceres 51%49% Pettis
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Pettis)
BantamweightHIT
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Wineland 51%49% Jabouin
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Jabouin)
Bantamweight
Camus 56%44% Meza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Camus)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Camus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Meza)
BantamweightHIT
Hugo Viana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Viana 59%41% Hernandez
LEAN
→Elo gap: +164(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Viana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hernandez)
LightweightHIT
Daron Cruickshank won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cruickshank 65%35% Rio
LEAN
→Elo gap: +77(favors Cruickshank)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Cruickshank)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Rio)
WelterweightMISS
George Sullivan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sullivan 37%63% Rhodes
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Rhodes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Rhodes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rhodes)
HeavyweightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Krylov 69%31% Harris
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Harris)