UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Saturday, January 25, 2014·Chicago, Illinois, USA·11 fights
Model: 6/10(60%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Split (R5)
Henderson 66%34% Thomson
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +215(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Thomson)
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miocic 69%31% Gonzaga
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Gonzaga)
LightweightMISS
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cerrone 49%51% Martins
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +228(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Cerrone)
FeatherweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 45%55% Elkins
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Stephens)
BantamweightMISS
Alex Caceres won by Submission (R3)
Caceres 42%58% Pettis
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Pettis)
BantamweightHIT
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Wineland 61%39% Jabouin
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +148(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Jabouin)
Prelims
Bantamweight
Camus 46%54% Meza
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Camus)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Camus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Meza)
BantamweightHIT
Hugo Viana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Viana 69%31% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +216(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Viana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hernandez)
LightweightHIT
Daron Cruickshank won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cruickshank 69%31% Rio
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +150(favors Cruickshank)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Cruickshank)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Rio)
WelterweightMISS
George Sullivan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sullivan 34%66% Rhodes
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -0(favors Rhodes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Rhodes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rhodes)
HeavyweightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Krylov 80%20% Harris
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
STRONG
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Harris)