UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Josh Thomson (3-3).

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 289 points above Thomson's 1217. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Thomson's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thomson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Josh Thomson. The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 880 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Gonzaga's submission artist approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Gabriel Gonzaga. We're leaning Miocic here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Adriano Martins (4-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cerrone at 1054, Martins at 1070. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adriano Martins over Donald Cerrone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martins at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10).

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 172 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Jeremy Stephens. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Sergio Pettis (8-5). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Caceres at 1232, Pettis at 1235. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pettis brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Caceres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Sergio Pettis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wineland at 865, Jabouin at 845. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Yves Jabouin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wineland at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chico Camus (3-3) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-3). Meza is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Camus carries a modest Elo edge (952 to 893), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Camus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camus throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Meza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chico Camus over Yaotzin Meza. The model gives Camus a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Hugo Viana (3-2) taking on Ramiro Hernandez (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Viana at 869, Hernandez at 852. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hugo Viana over Ramiro Hernandez. The model gives Viana a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Mike Rio (1-2).

Cruickshank carries a modest Elo edge (879 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Mike Rio. The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features George Sullivan (3-3) taking on Mike Rhodes (0-2).

Sullivan carries a modest Elo edge (884 to 829), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rhodes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rhodes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rhodes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rhodes over George Sullivan. The model gives Rhodes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 267 points above Harris's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krylov's submission artist game against Harris's striker approach. Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Harris brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Walt Harris. We're leaning Krylov here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.