UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-5) taking on Constantinos Philippou (6-4). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Rockhold is rated at 1419 — 154 points above Philippou's 1265. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Philippou throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Philippou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Philippou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Constantinos Philippou. The model gives Rockhold a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-12) taking on Lorenz Larkin (5-5). Tavares is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Larkin is rated at 1572 — 549 points above Tavares's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Lorenz Larkin. We're leaning Tavares here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-5) taking on Mike Easton (3-4). Easton will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dillashaw is rated at 1691 — 672 points above Easton's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dillashaw is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Easton brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Dillashaw the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Easton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Mike Easton. We're leaning Dillashaw here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-4) taking on Derek Brunson (14-7). Brunson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romero is rated at 1785 — 222 points above Brunson's 1563. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romero's striker game against Brunson's wrestler approach. Romero brings a versatile approach, while Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yoel Romero over Derek Brunson. The model gives Romero a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-6) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-6).

Ortiz is rated at 1384 — 159 points above Moraga's 1225. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Ortiz has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Moraga's wrestler game against Ortiz's striker approach. Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ortiz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over John Moraga. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-9) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-7). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 943 versus Sicilia at 838. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Miller over Sam Sicilia. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-5) taking on Justin Edwards (2-5). Nijem will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nijem at 990 versus Edwards at 856. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Justin Edwards. The model is firm on this one: Nijem at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Elias Silverio (3-2) taking on Isaac Vallie-Flagg (1-3). Silverio is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silverio carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallie-Flagg throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silverio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Silverio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Silverio over Isaac Vallie-Flagg. The model is firm on this one: Silverio at 79%.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-7) taking on Brian Houston (0-2).

Smith is rated at 1023 — 182 points above Houston's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Houston has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Smith over Brian Houston. We're leaning Smith here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-9) taking on Alptekin Ozkilic (1-3). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Smolka is rated at 951 — 202 points above Ozkilic's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ozkilic throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ozkilic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alptekin Ozkilic over Louis Smolka. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ozkilic at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-5) taking on Garett Whiteley (0-3).

Pichel is rated at 1162 — 537 points above Whiteley's 624. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whiteley throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Whiteley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Garett Whiteley over Vinc Pichel. The model gives Whiteley a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-1) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-7).

Dariush is rated at 1557 — 815 points above Brenneman's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dariush's all-rounder game against Brenneman's striker approach. Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brenneman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Brenneman over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brenneman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.