UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-4) taking on Constantinos Philippou (6-3). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rockhold at 1302 versus Philippou at 1179. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Philippou throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Philippou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Philippou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Constantinos Philippou over Luke Rockhold. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Philippou at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Lorenz Larkin (4-5). Tavares is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 577 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Lorenz Larkin. We're leaning Tavares here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Mike Easton (3-3). Easton will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 647 points above Easton's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dillashaw's submission artist game against Easton's striker approach. Dillashaw is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Easton brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Easton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Mike Easton. We're leaning Dillashaw here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-3) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6). Brunson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romero is rated at 1613 — 211 points above Brunson's 1402. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romero's striker game against Brunson's wrestler approach. Romero brings a versatile approach, while Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Yoel Romero. The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-5).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 163 points above Moraga's 1166. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Ortiz has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Moraga's wrestler game against Ortiz's striker approach. Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ortiz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over John Moraga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ortiz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 827), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Miller over Sam Sicilia. We're leaning Miller here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-4) taking on Justin Edwards (2-4). Nijem will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nijem at 944 versus Edwards at 798. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Justin Edwards. We're leaning Nijem here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Elias Silverio (3-1) taking on Isaac Vallie-Flagg (1-2). Silverio is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silverio carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 939), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallie-Flagg throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silverio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Silverio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Silverio over Isaac Vallie-Flagg. We're leaning Silverio here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-6) taking on Brian Houston (0-1).

Smith carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Houston has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Smith over Brian Houston. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 79%.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Alptekin Ozkilic (1-2). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Smolka carries a modest Elo edge (874 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ozkilic throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ozkilic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Alptekin Ozkilic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smolka at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Garett Whiteley (0-2).

Pichel is rated at 1062 — 326 points above Whiteley's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whiteley throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Whiteley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Garett Whiteley over Vinc Pichel. The model gives Whiteley a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 720 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dariush's all-rounder game against Brenneman's striker approach. Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brenneman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Charlie Brenneman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dariush at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.