The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (16-11) taking on Gray Maynard (11-7-1). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1624 — 532 points above Maynard's 1092. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maynard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Diaz over Gray Maynard. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-4) taking on Jessica Rakoczy (0-2).

Pena is rated at 1453 — 684 points above Rakoczy's 769. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakoczy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakoczy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rakoczy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Jessica Rakoczy. The model gives Pena a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Holdsworth (2-0) taking on Davey Grant (8-7).

Grant carries a modest Elo edge (1291 to 1254), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Chris Holdsworth. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessamyn Duke (1-3) taking on Peggy Morgan (0-1).

Morgan is rated at 873 — 235 points above Duke's 638. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morgan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morgan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morgan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessamyn Duke over Peggy Morgan. The model gives Duke a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-6) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-8).

Pennington is rated at 1433 — 397 points above Modafferi's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's all-rounder game against Modafferi's striker approach. Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Modafferi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Modafferi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Roxanne Modafferi. The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Akira Corassani (3-3) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-5). Blanco will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blanco is rated at 1070 — 196 points above Corassani's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Corassani's striker game against Blanco's all-rounder approach. Corassani brings a versatile approach, while Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Corassani throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Akira Corassani. We're leaning Blanco here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Tom Niinimaki (1-3) taking on Rani Yahya (13-6-1). Niinimaki is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Yahya is rated at 1127 — 456 points above Niinimaki's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Niinimaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Tom Niinimaki. We're leaning Yahya here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-2) taking on Walt Harris (6-9). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rosholt at 1256, Harris at 1273. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Rosholt's wrestler game against Harris's striker approach. Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Harris brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Walt Harris. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosholt at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Spencer (3-5) taking on Drew Dober (15-11). Spencer is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dober is rated at 1301 — 360 points above Spencer's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spencer's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Spencer brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Spencer over Drew Dober. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spencer at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Josh Sampo (1-3) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-6). Benoit will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Benoit at 836 versus Sampo at 750. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Josh Sampo. The model gives Benoit a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.