UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Saturday, October 19, 2013·Houston, Texas, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R5)
Velasquez 65%35% Santos
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Velasquez)
HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 71%29% Nelson
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
LightweightMISS
Gilbert Melendez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Melendez 44%56% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -461(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sanchez)
HeavyweightMISS
Gabriel Gonzaga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gonzaga 46%54% Jordan
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -231(favors Jordan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Jordan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Gonzaga)
FlyweightHIT
John Dodson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dodson 52%48% Montague
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +170(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Dodson)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Tim Boetsch won by Decision - Split (R3)
Boetsch 56%44% Dollaway
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +201(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Dollaway)
WelterweightMISS
Hector Lombard won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lombard 44%56% Marquardt
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -161(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lombard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Marquardt)
Women's Bantamweight
Kaufman 45%55% Eye
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -181(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Eye)
LightweightMISS
KJ Noons won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Noons 48%52% Sotiropoulos
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -89(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Sotiropoulos)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Adlan Amagov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Amagov 71%29% Waldburger
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -241(favors Waldburger)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Amagov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Amagov)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R1)
Ferguson 69%31% Rio
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +204(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Rio)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R2)
Fili 62%38% Larsen
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +321(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Larsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Larsen)
BantamweightMISS
Kyoji Horiguchi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Horiguchi 47%53% Pague
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +202(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Pague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pague)