UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Saturday, October 19, 2013·Houston, Texas, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R5)
Velasquez 55%45% Santos
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Velasquez)
HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 68%32% Nelson
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
LightweightMISS
Gilbert Melendez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Melendez 39%61% Sanchez
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -377(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sanchez)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gonzaga 54%46% Jordan
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Jordan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Jordan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Gonzaga)
FlyweightHIT
John Dodson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dodson 52%48% Montague
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +156(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Dodson)
MiddleweightHIT
Tim Boetsch won by Decision - Split (R3)
Boetsch 53%47% Dollaway
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Dollaway)
WelterweightMISS
Hector Lombard won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lombard 42%58% Marquardt
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lombard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Marquardt)
Women's Bantamweight
Kaufman 46%54% Eye
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -35(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Eye)
LightweightMISS
KJ Noons won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Noons 49%51% Sotiropoulos
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -37(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Sotiropoulos)
WelterweightHIT
Adlan Amagov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Amagov 67%33% Waldburger
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -150(favors Waldburger)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Amagov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Amagov)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R1)
Ferguson 58%42% Rio
LEAN
→Elo gap: +168(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Rio)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R2)
Fili 60%40% Larsen
LEAN
→Elo gap: +237(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Larsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Larsen)
BantamweightMISS
Kyoji Horiguchi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Horiguchi 50%50% Pague
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +177(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Pague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pague)