UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santos.

Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 320 points above Santos's 1427. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Junior Dos Santos. The model gives Velasquez a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-3) taking on Roy Nelson (9-10).

Cormier is rated at 1991 — 749 points above Nelson's 1242. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cormier's all-rounder game against Nelson's knockout artist approach. Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Roy Nelson. We're leaning Cormier here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Melendez (1-6) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-13).

Sanchez is rated at 1216 — 200 points above Melendez's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Melendez's striker game against Sanchez's all-rounder approach. Melendez brings a versatile approach, while Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Gilbert Melendez. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10) taking on Shawn Jordan (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jordan at 1200 versus Gonzaga at 1072. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jordan has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Gonzaga's submission artist game against Jordan's striker approach. Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jordan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Gabriel Gonzaga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jordan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-7) taking on Darrell Montague (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Montague.

Dodson is rated at 1376 — 681 points above Montague's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Montague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Darrell Montague. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dodson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-12) taking on CB Dollaway (11-9). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Boetsch is rated at 1280 — 180 points above Dollaway's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over CB Dollaway. The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Hector Lombard (3-8) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-12). Marquardt is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1179 versus Lombard at 1079. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lombard's all-rounder game against Marquardt's knockout artist approach. Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marquardt is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Hector Lombard. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sarah Kaufman (1-2) taking on Jessica Eye (5-10).

Eye is rated at 1060 — 181 points above Kaufman's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Eye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Eye over Sarah Kaufman. The model gives Eye a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features KJ Noons (2-3) taking on George Sotiropoulos (7-4).

Sotiropoulos carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over KJ Noons. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sotiropoulos at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Adlan Amagov (2-0) taking on TJ Waldburger (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Amagov.

Amagov is rated at 1434 — 327 points above Waldburger's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amagov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Amagov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Amagov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adlan Amagov over TJ Waldburger. We're leaning Amagov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-9) taking on Mike Rio (1-3). Ferguson will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ferguson is rated at 1255 — 493 points above Rio's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Mike Rio. We're leaning Ferguson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Jeremy Larsen (0-3). Fili will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fili is rated at 1176 — 549 points above Larsen's 627. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larsen throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Larsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Jeremy Larsen. The model gives Fili a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (9-1) taking on Dustin Pague (1-5). Pague is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 11-inch reach advantage.

Horiguchi is rated at 1584 — 847 points above Pague's 737. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Horiguchi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pague looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pague the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pague throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Horiguchi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Pague over Kyoji Horiguchi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pague at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.