UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Chan Sung Jung (7-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jung at 1528 versus Aldo at 1420. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Aldo over Chan Sung Jung. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8). Davis will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Machida carries a modest Elo edge (1493 to 1427), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Lyoto Machida. We're leaning Davis here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 260 points above Ferreira's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's wrestler game against Santos's striker approach. Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Thiago Santos. The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Tom Watson (2-4). Leites will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1176 — 308 points above Watson's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Leites's wrestler game against Watson's striker approach. Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Watson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Watson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Tom Watson. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Jose Maria (0-1).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 647 points above Maria's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Jose Maria. The model is firm on this one: Lineker at 84%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-6) taking on Vinny Magalhaes (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perosh at 872, Magalhaes at 885. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinny Magalhaes over Anthony Perosh. The model gives Magalhaes a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Sheila Gaff (0-1).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 846 points above Gaff's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaff throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sheila Gaff over Amanda Nunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaff at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 174 points above Moraes's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Sergio Moraes. We're leaning Magny here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Ian McCall (2-2-1) taking on Iliarde Santos (0-2). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McCall is rated at 1042 — 322 points above Santos's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCall throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McCall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. McCall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian McCall over Iliarde Santos. We're leaning McCall here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Josh Clopton (0-1).

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 158 points above Clopton's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clopton throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Clopton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Josh Clopton. We're leaning Yahya here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Francimar Barroso (4-3) taking on Ednaldo Oliveira (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barroso at 961 versus Oliveira at 844. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barroso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francimar Barroso over Ednaldo Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barroso at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Viscardi Andrade (2-1) taking on Bristol Marunde (0-1).

Andrade is rated at 1141 — 352 points above Marunde's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marunde throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Marunde is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viscardi Andrade over Bristol Marunde. The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.