UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 657 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Antonio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 84%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Santos at 1191, Hunt at 1169. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Hunt's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Hunt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Mark Hunt. We're leaning Santos here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on James Te Huna (5-4).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 753 points above Huna's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Huna's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Huna brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over James Te Huna. We're leaning Teixeira here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 665 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gray Maynard over TJ Grant. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maynard at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on KJ Noons (2-2). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cerrone is rated at 1054 — 168 points above Noons's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over KJ Noons. We're leaning Cerrone here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Rick Story (12-6). Pyle is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Story is rated at 1358 — 527 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Pyle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Story the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Mike Pyle. The model gives Story a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). Holloway is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 829 points above Bermudez's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Dennis Bermudez. The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Colton Smith (1-2).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 724 points above Smith's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colton Smith over Robert Whittaker. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-3).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 1029 points above Trujillo's 1031. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trujillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Abel Trujillo. We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Nah-Shon Burrell (1-0).

Thompson is rated at 1329 — 342 points above Burrell's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burrell throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burrell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Burrell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nah-Shon Burrell over Stephen Thompson. We're leaning Burrell here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features George Roop (5-7) taking on Brian Bowles (2-1). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Roop at 881, Bowles at 857. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bowles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Roop over Brian Bowles. The model gives Roop a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Estevan Payan (0-2).

Stephens is rated at 941 — 181 points above Payan's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Payan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Estevan Payan. We're leaning Stephens here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.