UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 lands on Saturday, May 25, 2013 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 12 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cain Velasquez vs Antonio SilvaHeavyweight | Cain Velasquez | Strong | 83% |
| Junior Dos Santos vs Mark HuntHeavyweight | Junior Dos Santos | Confident | 72% |
| Glover Teixeira vs James Te HunaLight Heavyweight | Glover Teixeira | Confident | 70% |
| TJ Grant vs Gray MaynardLightweight | TJ Grant | Toss-up | 51% |
| Donald Cerrone vs KJ NoonsLightweight | Donald Cerrone | Confident | 70% |
| Mike Pyle vs Rick StoryWelterweight | Rick Story | Confident | 70% |
| Dennis Bermudez vs Max HollowayFeatherweight | Dennis Bermudez | Toss-up | 50% |
| Robert Whittaker vs Colton SmithWelterweight | Colton Smith | Toss-up | 54% |
| Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Abel TrujilloLightweight | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Lean | 57% |
| Stephen Thompson vs Nah-Shon BurrellWelterweight | Nah-Shon Burrell | Confident | 72% |
| George Roop vs Brian BowlesBantamweight | George Roop | Lean | 59% |
| Jeremy Stephens vs Estevan PayanFeatherweight | Jeremy Stephens | Strong | 75% |
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Bet Now on DraftKingsFight-by-Fight Breakdown
Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Silva
The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Antonio Silva (3-7-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 701 points above Silva's 1046. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Antonio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 83%.
Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt
The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-8) taking on Mark Hunt (8-8-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1427 versus Hunt at 1336. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Hunt's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Hunt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Mark Hunt. We're leaning Santos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Glover Teixeira vs James Te Huna
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on James Te Huna (5-5).
Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 753 points above Huna's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Huna's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Huna brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Glover Teixeira over James Te Huna. We're leaning Teixeira here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
TJ Grant vs Gray Maynard
The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (8-3) taking on Gray Maynard (11-7-1).
Grant is rated at 1685 — 593 points above Maynard's 1092. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Grant over Gray Maynard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Donald Cerrone vs KJ Noons
The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-14) taking on KJ Noons (2-3). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Cerrone is rated at 1238 — 331 points above Noons's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Donald Cerrone over KJ Noons. We're leaning Cerrone here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Mike Pyle vs Rick Story
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-9) taking on Rick Story (12-7). Pyle is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Story is rated at 1428 — 462 points above Pyle's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story has won 3 straight.
The style clash matters here: Pyle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Story the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rick Story over Mike Pyle. We're leaning Story here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Dennis Bermudez vs Max Holloway
The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (10-7) taking on Max Holloway (23-9). Holloway is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Holloway is rated at 1901 — 728 points above Bermudez's 1173. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Max Holloway. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bermudez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Robert Whittaker vs Colton Smith
The Welterweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-7) taking on Colton Smith (1-3).
Whittaker is rated at 1722 — 983 points above Smith's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Colton Smith over Robert Whittaker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Abel Trujillo
The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (13-0) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-4).
Nurmagomedov is rated at 2088 — 981 points above Trujillo's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trujillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Abel Trujillo. The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Stephen Thompson vs Nah-Shon Burrell
The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-9-1) taking on Nah-Shon Burrell (1-1).
Thompson is rated at 1459 — 495 points above Burrell's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Burrell throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burrell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Burrell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nah-Shon Burrell over Stephen Thompson. We're leaning Burrell here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
George Roop vs Brian Bowles
The Bantamweight matchup features George Roop (5-8) taking on Brian Bowles (2-2). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Roop is rated at 961 — 209 points above Bowles's 752. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bowles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: George Roop over Brian Bowles. The model gives Roop a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Jeremy Stephens vs Estevan Payan
The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-19) taking on Estevan Payan (0-3).
Stephens is rated at 1112 — 415 points above Payan's 697. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Payan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Estevan Payan. The model is firm on this one: Stephens at 75%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.