UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-10) taking on Luke Rockhold (6-5). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Belfort at 1440, Rockhold at 1419. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Rockhold's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rockhold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Luke Rockhold. The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-7) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-10). Camozzi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Souza is rated at 1381 — 343 points above Camozzi's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Jacare Souza. We're leaning Camozzi here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-15) taking on Evan Dunham (11-9-1).

Anjos is rated at 1443 — 297 points above Dunham's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Evan Dunham. We're leaning Anjos here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-7-1) taking on Joao Zeferino (0-2).

Natal is rated at 1035 — 211 points above Zeferino's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Zeferino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Joao Zeferino. The model is firm on this one: Natal at 76%.

The Featherweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-9-1) taking on Hacran Dias (3-5).

Lentz is rated at 1262 — 205 points above Dias's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hacran Dias over Nik Lentz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dias at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on Mike Rio (1-3).

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 661 points above Rio's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Rio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Mike Rio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trinaldo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-12) taking on John Cholish (1-2). Cholish will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tibau at 1163 versus Cholish at 1030. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cholish throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cholish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over John Cholish. We're leaning Tibau here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-8) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-4). Thiago is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres is rated at 1296 — 376 points above Thiago's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Prazeres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Michel Prazeres. The model gives Thiago a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-7) taking on Iliarde Santos (0-3). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1136 — 499 points above Santos's 636. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Iliarde Santos. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-6) taking on Roger Hollett (0-2).

Maldonado is rated at 1095 — 275 points above Hollett's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maldonado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabio Maldonado over Roger Hollett. We're leaning Maldonado here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-4) taking on Azamat Gashimov (0-2).

Lineker is rated at 1549 — 801 points above Gashimov's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gashimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Azamat Gashimov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lineker at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-7) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-6). Formiga is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Formiga is rated at 1271 — 257 points above Cariaso's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Jussier Formiga. The model gives Cariaso a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Lucas Martins (4-3) taking on Jeremy Larsen (0-3). Martins is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Martins is rated at 1161 — 534 points above Larsen's 627. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larsen throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Larsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Martins over Jeremy Larsen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martins at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.