UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Saturday, April 20, 2013·San Jose, California, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Split (R5)
Henderson 79%21% Melendez
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +698(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Henderson)
HeavyweightMISS
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 39%61% Mir
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -453(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Mir)
LightweightMISS
Josh Thomson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Thomson 41%59% Diaz
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -334(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Thomson)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 68%32% Mein
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +198(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Mein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Brown)
FeatherweightHIT
Chad Mendes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendes 54%46% Elkins
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Mendes)
MiddleweightHIT
Francis Carmont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carmont 72%28% Larkin
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +287(favors Carmont)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Carmont)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Carmont)
LightweightHIT
Myles Jury won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jury 53%47% Nijem
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Jury)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Nijem)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Benavidez 51%49% Uyenoyama
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +24(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Uyenoyama)
LightweightMISS
Jorge Masvidal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Masvidal 31%69% Means
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Means)
BantamweightHIT
TJ Dillashaw won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dillashaw 57%43% Viana
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Dillashaw)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Njokuani won by KO/TKO (R2)
Njokuani 60%40% Bowling
LEAN
→Elo gap: +56(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Njokuani)
MiddleweightMISS
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R1)
Romero 34%66% Starks
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -41(favors Starks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Starks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Starks)