UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Saturday, April 20, 2013·San Jose, California, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Split (R5)
Henderson 81%19% Melendez
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +873(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Henderson)
HeavyweightMISS
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 43%57% Mir
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -527(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Mir)
LightweightHIT
Josh Thomson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Thomson 52%48% Diaz
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -356(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Thomson)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 62%38% Mein
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Mein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Brown)
FeatherweightHIT
Chad Mendes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendes 62%38% Elkins
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Mendes)
MiddleweightHIT
Francis Carmont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carmont 70%30% Larkin
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +373(favors Carmont)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Carmont)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Carmont)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Myles Jury won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jury 66%34% Nijem
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Jury)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Nijem)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Benavidez 63%37% Uyenoyama
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -21(favors Uyenoyama)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Uyenoyama)
LightweightMISS
Jorge Masvidal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Masvidal 35%65% Means
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -319(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Means)
BantamweightHIT
TJ Dillashaw won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dillashaw 71%29% Viana
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Dillashaw)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Njokuani won by KO/TKO (R2)
Njokuani 58%42% Bowling
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +124(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Njokuani)
MiddleweightMISS
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R1)
Romero 39%61% Starks
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -69(favors Starks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Starks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Starks)