UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez lands on Saturday, April 20, 2013 in San Jose, California, USA with 12 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benson Henderson vs Gilbert MelendezLightweight | Benson Henderson | Strong | 81% |
| Daniel Cormier vs Frank MirHeavyweight | Frank Mir | Lean | 57% |
| Josh Thomson vs Nate DiazLightweight | Josh Thomson | Toss-up | 52% |
| Matt Brown vs Jordan MeinWelterweight | Matt Brown | Lean | 62% |
| Chad Mendes vs Darren ElkinsFeatherweight | Chad Mendes | Lean | 62% |
| Francis Carmont vs Lorenz LarkinMiddleweight | Francis Carmont | Confident | 70% |
| Myles Jury vs Ramsey NijemLightweight | Myles Jury | Confident | 66% |
| Joseph Benavidez vs Darren UyenoyamaFlyweight | Joseph Benavidez | Lean | 63% |
| Jorge Masvidal vs Tim MeansLightweight | Tim Means | Confident | 65% |
| TJ Dillashaw vs Hugo VianaBantamweight | TJ Dillashaw | Confident | 71% |
| Anthony Njokuani vs Roger BowlingLightweight | Anthony Njokuani | Lean | 58% |
| Yoel Romero vs Clifford StarksMiddleweight | Clifford Starks | Lean | 61% |
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Benson Henderson vs Gilbert Melendez
The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (11-3) taking on Gilbert Melendez (1-6). Melendez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Henderson is rated at 1610 — 594 points above Melendez's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Melendez's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Melendez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Benson Henderson over Gilbert Melendez. The model is firm on this one: Henderson at 81%.
Daniel Cormier vs Frank Mir
The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-3) taking on Frank Mir (16-11). Mir is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Cormier is rated at 1991 — 624 points above Mir's 1367. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mir looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Mir over Daniel Cormier. The model gives Mir a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Josh Thomson vs Nate Diaz
The Lightweight matchup features Josh Thomson (3-4) taking on Nate Diaz (16-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1624 — 267 points above Thomson's 1357. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Thomson's striker game against Diaz's wrestler approach. Thomson brings a versatile approach, while Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Thomson over Nate Diaz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thomson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Matt Brown vs Jordan Mein
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (17-13) taking on Jordan Mein (5-4).
Mein carries a modest Elo edge (1288 to 1256), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mein is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brown the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mein throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Mein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Brown over Jordan Mein. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Chad Mendes vs Darren Elkins
The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-5) taking on Darren Elkins (19-11). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Mendes is rated at 1519 — 328 points above Elkins's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against Elkins's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chad Mendes over Darren Elkins. The model gives Mendes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Francis Carmont vs Lorenz Larkin
The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-3) taking on Lorenz Larkin (5-5). Carmont is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Larkin is rated at 1572 — 323 points above Carmont's 1249. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Carmont's all-rounder game against Larkin's striker approach. Carmont is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Larkin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Carmont throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Francis Carmont over Lorenz Larkin. We're leaning Carmont here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Myles Jury vs Ramsey Nijem
The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-4) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-5).
Jury is rated at 1268 — 278 points above Nijem's 990. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Jury is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jury throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Myles Jury over Ramsey Nijem. We're leaning Jury here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jorge Masvidal vs Tim Means
The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-10) taking on Tim Means (15-14). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.
Masvidal is rated at 1642 — 600 points above Means's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Masvidal's knockout artist game against Means's all-rounder approach. Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tim Means over Jorge Masvidal. We're leaning Means here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
TJ Dillashaw vs Hugo Viana
The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-5) taking on Hugo Viana (3-3).
Dillashaw is rated at 1691 — 810 points above Viana's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Dillashaw's all-rounder game against Viana's striker approach. Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Viana brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Hugo Viana. We're leaning Dillashaw here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Anthony Njokuani vs Roger Bowling
The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Njokuani (3-5) taking on Roger Bowling (0-2). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Njokuani is rated at 1005 — 209 points above Bowling's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Njokuani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bowling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Njokuani over Roger Bowling. The model gives Njokuani a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Yoel Romero vs Clifford Starks
The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-4) taking on Clifford Starks (1-2). Starks will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
Romero is rated at 1785 — 945 points above Starks's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Starks throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Starks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Clifford Starks over Yoel Romero. The model gives Starks a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.