The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Faber is rated at 1297 — 561 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jorgensen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Urijah Faber over Scott Jorgensen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Faber at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Hall carries a modest Elo edge (1378 to 1340), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Gastelum's all-rounder game against Hall's striker approach. Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Kelvin Gastelum. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hall at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Cat Zingano (3-3) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6). Zingano will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tate carries a modest Elo edge (1077 to 1008), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Zingano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tate is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zingano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tate throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miesha Tate over Cat Zingano. The model gives Tate a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 165 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gonzaga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gonzaga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Travis Browne over Gabriel Gonzaga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browne at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert McDaniel (1-1) taking on Gilbert Smith (0-0).

McDaniel carries a modest Elo edge (924 to 890), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert McDaniel over Gilbert Smith. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McDaniel at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Samman (3-1) taking on Kevin Casey (1-2-1). Samman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Samman at 993 versus Casey at 895. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Casey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Samman over Kevin Casey. The model gives Samman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Barnatt (3-2) taking on Collin Hart (0-0).

Barnatt carries a modest Elo edge (962 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hart throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Collin Hart over Luke Barnatt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hart at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dylan Andrews (2-2) taking on Jimmy Quinlan (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Quinlan at 873 versus Andrews at 780. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinlan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinlan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Quinlan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Quinlan over Dylan Andrews. The model gives Quinlan a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Clint Hester (4-2) taking on Bristol Marunde (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hester at 892 versus Marunde at 790. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marunde throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marunde is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marunde has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clint Hester over Bristol Marunde. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hester at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Bart Palaszewski (1-2). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 891, Palaszewski at 863. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Miller over Bart Palaszewski. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Maximo Blanco (4-4) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6). Blanco will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blanco is rated at 1013 — 186 points above Sicilia's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sicilia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sicilia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Sam Sicilia. The model gives Blanco a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Pineda (5-7) taking on Justin Lawrence (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pineda at 979 versus Lawrence at 830. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawrence throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lawrence has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Lawrence over Daniel Pineda. The model gives Lawrence a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.